The scale of the Israeli attack has caught me by surprise. It is just so big and ongoing, no end in sight.
There are many ways to look at this conflict.
- A tussle between a democracy and countries that are not so.
- A tussle between divergent cultures, a clash of "civilizations."
- The attribution of the actions of non state actors upon state actors to degrees that can not be accurate.
- The right wing propensity to hit physically when offended.
- A proxy regional war. Like a Corleone family small fish says in the movie Godfather, "This has to happen once every 10 years."
Take the case of suicide bombers. A full fledged state with a standing army fights with that army. What does a non state hoping to become a state do? It ends up sending suicide bombers. Both soldiers and suicide bombers are people who, by definition, are ready to die. It is an ongoing war of asymmetry.
Syria is a poor country. Iran is not rich, although large. The Palestinians are a poor people. Israel is rich. There is a West-Third World divide there.
I think Clinton did a very good job of deescalation. But Bush is not even trying. It is against his ideology to try. His thrust is to just keep pounding. Strong on defense means a lot of defense companies make a lot of money when wars happen. Each missile is millions of dollars.
Peace making is a tricky proposition. It is hard enough when the parties to the conflict are trying. Here not only are the parties not attempting peace, there is no visible outside actor making such an attempt. Peace making is a proactive process. America is one power that could matter. America is disengaged. America has gone to sleep on the hapless Arabs.
Arafat is gone, but when he was around it always amused me when western peacemakers demanded that he "end" terrorism. That is akin to asking the mayor of New York City to bring the murder rate in the city down to zero. You deny the guy his state, and then you wonder why he is not doing a good job of law enforcement.
This is a war between power and powerlessness. Israel is rich. The Arab masses are poor.
I have long maintained the only way the Long War - War on Terror - will conclude is after all Arab countries become democracies. I wish there were a way to ignite local democracy movements. Lack of democracy really distorts ground sentiments. And you end up facing Israeli incomprehension.
What a mess we have at hand! Both sides harbor exaggerated fears. Israel is nowhere near being pushed into the sea. But it claims to be fighting for its right to exist. Syria and Iran feel under siege. I hear that is how World War I started, through sheer miscalculation.
The first goal has to be deescalation. Then a ceasefire. Then confidence building measures. Then meaningful talks, comprehensive peace.
What is going on right now is a dangerous game of brinkmanship.
In The News
Never A Ceasefire For Mideast Hatreds A decades-long record shows that Hamas and Hezbollah always find new reasons to attack. Diplomatic skills and arm-twisting tactics have not yet been invented with the power to change the fundamental reality that these two terrorist groups still believe Israel can and must be defeated and the Jewish state destroyed. ...... The realism of Nixon, the idealism of Carter, the saber rattling of Reagan and Bush I and the secret diplomacy of Clinton have yielded more Nobel Peace prizes than actual peace.........
Arabs divided on Hezbollah over Israel Houston Chronicle, United States many vilifying it for provoking Israel's attack on Lebanon...... Backers, however, voice pride in Hezbollah's ability to fight back, landing missiles from its Iranian-supplied arsenal deep inside Israel.......Arabs on the whole have felt a historic frustration over their inability to defeat Israel. Hezbollah's missile strikes deep inside Israel generate pride because they inflicted pain on an opponent with clear military superiority..... Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, represent "what is left of honor and dignity in times of submission" ....... "By striking Israel, he has restored the glories of the old Muslims" ........ "Beloved Nasrallah, hit Tel Aviv!" chanted the crowd, estimated at around 10,000 people....... "He reminds me of Saddam Hussein, who dragged Iraq into several similar adventures which have led to the complete destruction of Iraq" ...... "He is arrogant and irresponsible." ...... Hezbollah's political strength in Lebanon threatens the government's hold on power; its military power has made it impossible for the government and army to take control of the south......... "The Israelis aren't hurting Hezbollah. They're killing civilians and they are destroying Lebanon" ......
Israel says Hezbollah, Iran coordinated soldier abductions
Italy slams Israel 'excess' The Australian, Australia the war had heightened regional risks and anti-Western fundamentalism. ...... "Israel's prevalently military vision of security, which is what has prevailed so far - targeted killings, reprisals, restrictions which aggravate living conditions of Palestinians - not only produce unsustainable human costs. ....... "But they increase the level of hatred and, therefore, insecurity." He said Israel's attacks in Gaza "went beyond any reasonable proportion"......... the political risk of Lebanon's collapse would not reinforce Israel's security
Italy slams Israel excess, failed Iraq policy
Canada's Lebanon stand sparks domestic criticism
Lebanon condemns Israel 'madness'
Israel says Hizbollah smuggling weapons from Syria
Israel refuses temporary ceasefire request
Offensive likely to redefine West Asia political map
No Apparent Solution to Israel's Crisis With Lebanon
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