Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Xi Jinping. Show all posts

Thursday, April 10, 2025

The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War


The Trump–Xi Trade Saga: From Tariff Wars to Economic Brinkmanship

Since Donald Trump first assumed the U.S. presidency in 2017, his trade negotiations with Chinese President Xi Jinping have been a defining feature of global economic relations. Spanning two non-consecutive terms, Trump's approach to China has evolved from aggressive tariff implementations to a complex interplay of economic strategies and geopolitical considerations.

First Term (2017–2021): The Genesis of the Trade War

Upon entering office, President Trump prioritized addressing the U.S. trade deficit with China, accusing Beijing of unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. This led to a series of escalating tariffs:

  • In 2018, the U.S. imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, prompting China to retaliate with duties on $110 billion of U.S. products.

  • The conflict culminated in the "Phase One" trade deal in January 2020, where China committed to purchasing an additional $200 billion in U.S. goods over two years. However, by the end of 2021, China had fulfilled only 58% of its commitments, falling short of the agreement's targets. 

Despite these efforts, the U.S. trade deficit with China continued to grow, reaching record highs by 2020. 

Second Term (2025–Present): Renewed Confrontation

Re-elected in 2024, President Trump resumed a hardline stance on China, implementing a series of aggressive trade measures:

  • Tariff Escalations: In early 2025, the administration imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all Chinese imports, which was subsequently increased to 20%. Additional "reciprocal tariffs" brought the effective rate on some goods to as high as 145%. 

  • Chinese Retaliation: Beijing responded with tariffs of up to 84% on U.S. goods, suspended certain agricultural imports, and initiated investigations into American companies. 

  • Economic Impact: These actions led to significant market volatility, with U.S. stock indices experiencing steep declines. Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the tariffs as the "worst self-inflicted wound" on a strong economy. 

Diplomatic Dynamics and Future Prospects

Despite the escalating tensions, both leaders have expressed openness to dialogue:

  • Trump's Position: President Trump has indicated a willingness to negotiate, stating he would "love to make a trade deal with China." 

  • China's Stance: Chinese officials have affirmed that "the door to talks is open," emphasizing the need for mutual respect and equality in negotiations. 

However, underlying issues such as technology transfers, market access, and geopolitical rivalries continue to complicate the path to a comprehensive agreement.

Conclusion

The trade relationship between the U.S. and China under President Trump's leadership has been marked by cycles of confrontation and tentative engagement. As both nations navigate the complexities of economic interdependence and strategic competition, the outcomes of their negotiations will have far-reaching implications for global trade and economic stability.


Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

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Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption
The Coming Storm: What Happens Now That Trump Has Slapped Tariffs on the Entire World
The Emperor and the River: Why Manufacturing Jobs Aren’t Coming Back Why the U.S. Has Trade Deficits (And Why That Might Be by Design)
WTO Minus One: Trump’s Tariff Chaos and America’s Self-Inflicted Decline
China And Trade
Trumponomics: A 1600s Idea in 21st Century Clothing
Economic Theories That Disagree with Trump's Tariff Policy
$8 Billion Is Insufficient to End World Hunger
The Structure Of Trump's Victory
Only The Kalkiist Economy Can Fully And Fairly Harvest AI
मैं कपिल शर्मा शो का बहुत बड़ा फैन हुँ

How BYD Is Beating Tesla at Its Own Game
Revolutionizing Email: From Chronological Chaos to Smart AI Agents
The Next Smartphone Will Have IOT Elements
Building Tools Versus Solving Big Problems

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War
Peace For Taiwan Is Possible

Trump’s Trade War

Trump’s Trade War

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Friday, March 24, 2023

Ryan Hass, Xi Jinping, China, Russia



Interests, Not Ideology, Should Drive America’s Approach to China Ideologues prefer to understand the U.S.-China relationship as a contest between good versus evil. They take comfort in clean divisions between democracies versus autocracies. They like parallels between the current U.S.-China great power contest and the U.S.-Soviet Union Cold War. The United States triumphed over the Soviets in the Cold War, after all, so why not repeat the cycle again now with China, they ask. .......... invoking Cold War analogies misdiagnoses the nature of the U.S.-China relationship and creates a false hope that the United States has the capacity to compel the collapse of China. ........ Any American attempt to treat China as its existential enemy (a la the Soviet Union during the Cold War) would isolate the United States from its friends and allies, none of whom have any enthusiasm for joining an anti-China containment coalition. ....... Not even America’s closest partners in Europe or Asia would sign up for a role in erecting such a global economic partition. ......... Trade data does not support arguments that China is seeking to bifurcate the global economy, though.

Over 150 countries view China as their largest trading partner, making China the world’s largest trading power.

Even as Beijing pursues more statist economic policies at home, it continues to look for opportunities to gain leverage by locking in other countries’ dependence upon China for future economic growth. ......... a recognition that the bilateral relationship is deeply competitive. ......... Both countries also are battling each other to dominate the frontiers of innovation in technological fields that will define the coming century, such as quantum computing, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and clean energy. ............. bilateral trade in goods hit a record in 2022, nearing $700 billion ........ by virtue of their positions as the world’s two most powerful countries, the United States and China also face planetary interdependence. From climate change to the global economy and pandemics, they both are harmed or helped by their (in)ability to pool capabilities to confront shared threats.......... The sooner leaders in Washington and Beijing embrace the framework of competitive interdependence for understanding the nature of U.S.-China relations, the better they will be able to compete without resort to conflict. The framework pushes both sides to coexist within a heightened state of competition, not out of amity but rather a sober recognition of the parameters within which the relationship operates. The hard truth is that neither the United States nor China would be able to achieve their national ambitions if they end up in conflict with each other. ........... the goal of strategy is to minimize risks and maximize benefits. The current trajectory of U.S.-China relations is moving in the opposite direction. Risks of conflict are rising, while benefits from the relationship for American and Chinese citizens are receding. ......... a degree of strategic maturity that has been in short supply in recent years ......... The current downward trajectory of the relationship, if not arrested, will continue to generate sharp incidents of growing intensity. Expecting that U.S. and Chinese leaders would manage all such future incidents wisely and calmly requires the triumph of hope over reason. ........ What is needed now is clear-eyed, evidence-based, interest-driven thinking about how the world’s two most powerful countries can compete without resort to conflict, both now and in the future.



China as Peacemaker in the Ukraine War? The U.S. and Europe Are Skeptical Chinese officials say Xi Jinping’s upcoming trip to Moscow is a peace mission. But U.S. and European officials say he aims to bolster Vladimir V. Putin....... And even a call by Mr. Xi for a cease-fire would amount to an effort to strengthen Mr. Putin’s battlefield position, they say, by leaving Russia in control of more territory than when the invasion began. ...... A cease-fire now would be “effectively the ratification of Russian conquest,” John Kirby, a White House spokesman, said on Friday. “It would in effect recognize Russia’s gains and its attempt to conquer its neighbor’s territory by force, allowing Russian troops to continue to occupy sovereign Ukrainian territory.” ......... for Chinese officials to come out of the meeting claiming “we’re the ones calling for an end to the fighting and nobody else is.” ....... In an article published in a Russian newspaper on Sunday, Mr. Xi wrote that China had pursued “efforts to promote reconciliation and peace negotiations.” ......... Skepticism of one of Mr. Xi’s stated goals pervades thinking in Washington and some European capitals. American intelligence agencies have concluded that relations between China and Russia have deepened during the war, even as Russia has become isolated from many other nations. ........ The two countries continue to do joint military exercises, and Beijing has joined Moscow in regularly denouncing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. China remains one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, which has helped Moscow finance its invasion. ......... Chinese officials have at no point condemned the invasion. ........... “Western countries led by the United States have implemented all-around containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.” ....... But China remains firmly anchored in the global economy, and Mr. Xi and his aides want to avoid being seen as malign actors on the world stage, especially in the eyes of Europe, a major trade partner. ....... Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin have a strong personal affinity and, as of this week’s state visit, have met 40 times since Mr. Xi became China’s leader in 2012. Mr. Putin called Mr. Xi a “dear old friend” in an article published in a Chinese newspaper on Sunday, saying the two enjoyed the “warmest relationship.” ......... China’s recent mediation of an initial diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran had boosted notions of China as a peacemaker. ....... China is not a close partner of either country and has a very specific economic interest in preventing the two from escalating their hostilities — it buys large amounts of oil from both. .......... Mr. Xi has not talked to Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, since the war began, much less asked for his perspective on peace talks. ........... Mr. Zelensky has said he would enter peace talks only if Mr. Putin withdrew his troops from Ukrainian territory. That includes the Crimean Peninsula, which the Russian military seized in 2014, and the Donbas region, where that same year Russian troops stoked a pro-Russia separatist insurgency. ........... Qin Gang, the foreign minister of China, spoke by phone with Dmytro Kuleba, the foreign minister of Ukraine, and stressed that the warring sides should “resume peace talks” and “return to the track of political settlement” ......... Analysts in Washington concur. “I don’t think China can serve as a fulcrum on which any Ukraine peace process could move,” said Ryan Hass, a former U.S. diplomat to China and White House official who is a scholar at the Brookings Institution. ......... Mr. Hass added that China would have a role as part of a signing or guaranteeing group for any eventual peace deal and would be critical to Ukraine’s reconstruction. “I believe Zelensky understands this, which is why he has been willing to exercise so much patience with China and with Xi personally,” he said........... they saw it as a further sign of China’s friendship if not alliance with Russia, as well as an effort by China to present itself as a mediator in the war. ....... He suggested that Washington wanted the war to continue to further weaken Russia. “Some forces might not want to see peace talks materialize,” he said. “They don’t care about the life and death of Ukrainians or the harms on Europe. They might have strategic goals larger than Ukraine itself. This warfare must not continue.” ........ many European officials, like their Ukrainian and American counterparts, are convinced that early talks on a peace settlement will be at the expense of Ukrainian sovereignty. ......... “It is not a peace plan, but principles that they shared” .



Japan’s Prime Minister Becomes Latest G7 Leader to Visit Ukraine Fumio Kishida, who has been seeking a more active role for his country in international affairs, made an unannounced trip to meet with Ukraine’s president. ......... Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has galvanized Japan’s foreign and military policy, stoking concerns about the costs of geopolitical instability. Policymakers and the public alike worry that the country would be unprepared to handle a crisis in its own backyard, whether North Korean aggression or an attempt by China to take the self-ruled island of Taiwan. ....... Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, said the prime minister’s show of solidarity with Mr. Zelensky was in contrast to the partnership between Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin, calling the alignment between the Chinese and Russian leaders “nefarious.” ........ “Prime Minister Kishida stands with freedom, and Xi stands with a war criminal,” the ambassador wrote. ....... A spokesman for China’s Foreign Ministry responded to news of the visit by saying Japan should “help de-escalate the situation instead of the opposite.” ....... The war has raised concerns about Japan’s reliance on other countries for food and energy, most of which it imports. Prices for commodities such as natural gas jumped after the invasion, putting cost pressures on Japan’s production of electricity. In response, the country has pushed for closer relationships with its allies and broken a decades-long deadlock in military spending as it plans to double its budget over the next five years. ....... Mr. Kishida embarked for Ukraine from India, where he had met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on issues including protecting freedom of navigation in the Pacific. ........ In a speech on Monday at the Indian Council of World Affairs, a research institute in New Delhi, Mr. Kishida said that Russia’s war had driven a “paradigm shift” in global affairs. ..... “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine oblige us to face the most fundamental challenge: defending peace,” he said, according to prepared remarks. .

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Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Xi In Moscow

Call me anytime: Zelenskyy plays the long game with Xi Jinping Ukraine is conspicuously diplomatic in its dealings with Vladimir Putin’s top ally.
What Zelenskyy should know before he talks with Xi
Russia and China want to disrupt the world order, NSC spokesperson says “They’d like to rewrite the rules of the game globally,” John Kirby said.
Xi Jinping visits Moscow to meet Putin (March 20)
Blinken slams Xi for providing ‘diplomatic cover’ to Putin during Moscow visit
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin meet in Moscow, discuss Chinese peace plan for Ukraine Washington and its allies are skeptical that Xi can be an honest broker; US urges China and Russia to ‘respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity’ ....... The two leaders meet for 4.5 hours, and Russian media reports that Putin ‘went out into the street’ to see Xi off as they parted, a rare move for him .
Xi Jinping says China ready to ‘stand guard over world order’ on Moscow visit Chinese leader expected to position himself as peacemaker but US condemns Xi for providing ‘diplomatic cover’ for atrocities in Ukraine .
Putin rips West as trying to stifle Russia, China's 'development,’ while Xi arrives in Moscow
Putin and Xi prepare for second day of talks in Moscow as Japanese PM heads to Ukraine Chinese and Russian leaders to discuss Ukraine in formal talks after friendly dinner, while Fumio Kishida meets Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv .
China bills itself as a Ukraine peacemaker but US says Xi’s talks with Putin provide ‘diplomatic cover’ for war
Xi: China's proposal on Ukraine reflects unity of global views Xi has been seeking to present China as a global peacemaker and project it as a responsible great power.



20 years on, George W. Bush’s promise of democracy in Iraq and Middle East falls short the main arguments for the invasion: that there were weapons of mass destruction. ....... “it turned out that the sourcing was inaccurate and wrong and in some cases deliberately misleading.” ........ “The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution,” Bush said in November 2003. He also said that the U.S. would be pursuing a “forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East.” ........ In 2003, there was indeed, as Bush noted, a “freedom deficit” in the Middle East, where repressive authoritarian regimes dominated the region. Yet, in spite of tremendous upheaval in the Middle East over the past two decades, many authoritarian regimes remain deeply entrenched. ......... The non-profit group Freedom House evaluates countries in terms of democratic institutions and whether they have free and fair elections, as well as people’s civil rights and liberties, such as freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and a free press. Freedom House rates each country and its level of democracy on a scale from 2 to 14, from “mostly free” to “least free.” ............ In 2003, the average Freedom House score for an Arab League member was 11.45 – far more authoritarian than the global average of 6.75 at the time. ......... the Freedom House report in 2003 classified a little over 46% of all countries as “free,” but no country in the Arab League met that threshold. ......... The fall of Hussein’s regime in April 2003 produced a nominally more democratic Iraq. But after fighting a series of sectarian insurgencies in Iraq over an eight-year period, the U.S. ultimately left behind a weak and deeply divided government. .......... Rivalry between Iraq’s three main groups – the Sunni and Shiite Muslims as well as the Kurds, the largest ethnic minority in the country – paralyzed early attempts at political reorganization. ........

in 2023, Freedom House continues to score Iraq as “Not Free” in its measure of democracy.

........ In 2014, widespread protest movements associated with the Arab Spring toppled dictators in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya. In other countries, such as Morocco and Jordan, monarchs were able to offer concessions to people and remain in control by delaying public spending cuts, for example, and replacing government ministers. ........ In Egypt, the military has reasserted itself and the country has slid steadily back to authoritarianism. In Yemen, the political vaccum created by the protests marked the start of a devastating civil war. ........ The average Freedom House democracy score for members of the Arab League is today 11.45 — the same as it was on the eve of the Iraq invasion. ........... It is hard to know if a different approach might have yielded better results. ...... the vision of an Iraq as an inspiration for a democratic transformation of the Middle East has not come to pass. .

The collapse of major US banks leads to bills calling for more regulation bipartisan-backed deregulation in 2018 led to the banks’ collapse ......... lax government policy that included overspending – which Barr says, fueled inflation, as well as long-term low interest rates – not deregulation, was behind the banks’ failures. ........ banks with US$50 billion in assets be subject to strict standards ....... But the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 loosened the standards, raising the asset threshold to $250 billion, meaning fewer banks were under strict controls. ........ During 2022, Silvergate’s deposit base grew dramatically, almost doubling its assets to $210 billion. But the bank did not have either the administrative capacity or market demand to lend out all of the money, as banks normally do. So, it invested the excess deposits in Treasury bonds and mortgage investment products. ......... Industry leaders, among them Greg Becker, CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, lobbied Congress in 2015 to roll back some of the Dodd-Frank Act provisions. ........ These standards were arguably designed to specifically prevent and address the type of circumstances that triggered these recent bank failures: multiple failures and contagion in the financial system, market panic, deposit runs and liquidity crisis. .

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Sunday, November 27, 2022

Xi Jinping Could Fall Like A House Of Cards



Xi's Iron Grip Tested As Covid Lockdown Protests Rage In Chinese Cities China's hardline virus strategy is stoking public frustration, with many growing weary of snap lockdowns, lengthy quarantines and mass testing campaigns .

China’s zero-Covid policy comes under fire, but experts don’t expect big changes any time soon Social media post questioning basis for epidemic-control restrictions goes viral ...... Sporadic protests seen in streets of cities across country as dissatisfaction mounts .

Videos Show How Covid Protests Are Spreading Across China
Shanghai protesters, police jostle as anger over China's COVID curbs mounts . Wave of civil disobedience unprecedented under President Xi ..... Rising frustration over Xi's zero-COVID policy ...... Apartment fire in Urumqi last Thursday killed 10 ...... Vigils turn to protests in cities including Beijing, Shanghai ...... Prestigious Beijing university students stage protest .......... The wave of civil disobedience, which has spread to other cities including Beijing, is unprecedented in mainland China since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago and comes amid mounting frustration over his signature zero-COVID policy. ....... China has spent nearly three years living with some of the strictest COVID curbs in the world. ....... Many of Urumqi's 4 million residents have been under some of the country's longest lockdowns, barred from leaving their homes for as long as 100 days. ...... Another protestor, Shaun Xiao, said: "I’m here because I love my country, but I don’t love my government...I want to be able to go out freely, but I can’t. Our COVID-19 policy is a game and is not based on science or reality." ....... "Down with the Chinese Communist Party, down with Xi Jinping", according to witnesses and videos posted on social media, in a rare public protest against the country's leadership. ........ China has stuck with Xi's zero-COVID policy even as much of the world has lifted most restrictions. While low by global standards, China's cases have hit record highs for days, with nearly 40,000 new infections on Saturday. ......... China defends the policy as life-saving and necessary to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system. Officials have vowed to continue with it despite the growing public pushback and its mounting economic toll. ........ The world's second-largest economy is also facing other headwinds including a global recession risks and a property downturn. ........ Widespread public protest is extremely rare in China, where room for dissent has been all but eliminated under Xi, forcing citizens mostly to vent on social media, where they play cat-and-mouse with censors. ........ the unrest is far from that seen in 1989, when protests culminated in the bloody crackdown in Tiananmen Square. He added that as long as Xi had China's elite and the military on his side, he would not face any meaningful risk to his hold on power. ......... This weekend, Xinjiang Communist Party Secretary Ma Xingrui called for the region to step up security maintenance and curb the "illegal violent rejection of COVID-prevention measures".

Protests erupt across China in unprecedented challenge to Xi Jinping’s zero-Covid policy

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Saturday, January 11, 2020

China And Xi

For Xi Jinping, the biggest danger to the Communist Party is itself under the official hyperbole that China is fast becoming a world power lies one factor which keeps Chinese leaders awake at night – their capacity to manage the complex challenges at home and abroad in order to stay in power. ........ past plenums have often heralded the country’s most important political or economic changes. ........ For instance, back in 1978 at the third plenum of the 11th Central Committee, Deng Xiaoping orchestrated China’s epoch-making shift towards reform and opening up, making “economic construction” the mantra to replace Mao Zedong’s “class struggle” and putting the Chinese economy on the path of rapid development. ........ their well-vaunted governance model, which they have been trumpeting as a viable alternative for other developing countries. This basically means that in return for allowing market forces to play an important role in the economy and in improving people’s living standards, the Chinese leadership maintains tight autocratic control and cracks down on political dissent, as opposed to the liberty and values espoused by Western democracies. ........ “party, government, military, civilian, academic; east, west, south, north, and the centre, the party leads everything”. ............ from Xi’s own perspective, the biggest danger to the rule of the party is the party itself....... “I believe the one who can defeat us is ourselves, no one else,” he said of the ruling party, which has 89 million members and 4.5 million grass-roots branches. .........

He ruminated that when the Soviet Communist Party had 200,000 members, it seized power. When it had two million members, it defeated an invasion by Nazi Germany in World War II. But it lost power when it had 20 million members.

........... On the Chinese mainland, Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has decisively tamed widespread official corruption, but its side-effects have also become obvious. One of them is that officials have retreated into a lethargic mode and are averse to making any decisions, obfuscating government directives in order to deflect responsibilities. ......... the party’s forceful efforts to assert control have unnerved an increasing number of private entrepreneurs, reducing their appetite for investment. This has led to a downward trend for overall private investment, dragging down economic growth........ Even well-known political figures and businesspeople often disappear for months, if not years, before reports emerge that they are being held on corruption allegations. ........Hong Kong people’s distrust of the Chinese mainland’s law enforcement and judicial system was one of the key reasons behind massive protests against the now-withdrawn extradition bill, which would have allowed the city to send suspects to the mainland. The protests have since morphed into a wider anti-government and pro-democracy movement....... More than 40 years have passed since Deng made the monumental shift from Mao’s class struggle to a national emphasis on economic construction. Time is due for the Chinese leadership to make another strategic shift to the rule of law if China wants to become a responsible and respected world leader.



How the Hong Kong protests affected overseas Chinese in Asia and beyond The anti-government demonstrations have not only impacted those in the city, they have been felt by Chinese communities everywhere from New Zealand to Canada ...... But protesters in India and Indonesia also described learning lessons from Hong Kong demonstrators ........ The estimated 1.5 million Chinese students studying at campuses around the world faced increased scrutiny as the protests in Hong Kong garnered international attention, especially when they defended Beijing’s policies. ........ South Korean students have complained about being targets of cyberbullying and doxxing in response to their support for Hong Kong protesters. ........ Several Chinese students who spoke to This Week in Asia, especially those who are apolitical, said they had tried to avoid engaging others on the issue, but increasingly felt like they were being forced to pick sides. “You are either pro-democracy, pro-human rights, or you are pro-China. They are putting us in this awkward position. We cannot say we are anti-China because we are from China,” one student said. ....... 208 Canadian Chinese groups in July jointly signing ads in Chinese-language newspapers in Canada denouncing the “radical” Hong Kong protesters.......... In September, thousands of Indonesians took to the streets to protest against the government’s proposed legislative changes, which critics said would restrict free speech and discriminate against women and minorities. ....... More recently, protests have flared up in India over the government’s controversial new citizenship law, which would grant citizenship to non-Muslim refugees from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan..... A social media campaign soon started in solidarity with the mostly students who were assaulted while protesting against the law, taking lessons from other such movements such as the Hong Kong protests.

One of the first things they did was download the Bridgefy app, which allowed them to communicate with each other via Bluetooth, amid rumours that mobile and internet connections would be shut down.

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Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Is The Trade War Over?

Having a leader who is neither trusted by our erstwhile friends nor feared by our foreign rivals reduces our global influence in ways we’re just starting to see. Trump’s trade war didn’t achieve any of its goals, but it did succeed in making America weak again.
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Sunday, November 17, 2019

I Am Worried For Hong Kong

I am worried about Hong Kong. This is too much violence. The solution is dialogue. The solution is Carrie Lam inviting the protest leaders to sit down and talk.

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Sunday, November 10, 2019

China Has Already Started Political Reforms: In Shenzen

The Hong Kong Bay Area is known globally as the Silicon Valley of hardware. You show up there with 20,000 dollars and a basic whiff of an idea, and in no time you will have a prototype. You can choose to mass produce after that right there. Whether or not you can push the finished product into the market would be up to you. That is quite a bargain. That is innovation at bullet-train speed.

We have all been talking about how China is thick in the brain, how it simply does not get it. Ends up maybe not. They have started their political reforms the exact same way they started their economic reforms. Deng Xiaoping picked one place across the waters from Hong Kong. And once economic reforms were shown to work there they were then taken all over China.

Looks like Xi has picked that same spot for his political reforms.

China’s Shenzhen is using big data to become a smart ‘socialist model city’ Beijing tells southern technology centre to use ‘best modern governance practices that promote high quality and sustainable development’ ......... China will be the ‘world’s first modern powerhouse not built on the road of capitalism’, head of national economic planning agency says ....... Shenzhen is experimenting with a “party and technology” development model as it aims to become a “socialist model city”...... The city, which is known for its technology industry, was told by Beijing in August to find “the best modern governance practices that promote high quality and sustainable development so it can be held up as an example of civilised society of law and order where people enjoy a high degree of satisfaction”. ........

Shenzhen faced “unprecedented new tasks” which bore great significance for the rest of the country.

.......... The problems encountered in the modernisation of our country are likely to appear in Shenzhen first ...... it was Shenzhen’s pioneering role that had made such a pilot experiment important........ “Being a socialist pilot demonstration zone, the governance models that have proven successful in Shenzhen will be replicated in other Chinese cities” ....... the city began its big data and smart city plan in 2013....... As well as data sets covering populations and the economy, the official said Shenzhen had also built “thematic databases” that could empower officials who handled social disputes and public grievances......... As part of the city’s plan, Shenzhen also launched its “Weaving Net Project” in 2013 under which it divided the city into thousands of data zones and designated an “information collector” to each zone. ........ The system also uses 2 million surveillance cameras dotted about the city. ....... “About 80 per cent of criminal cases are solved with the help of video surveillance.

Almost all criminal cases can be solved in 24 or 48 hours with the help of these technologies”

....... the city had taken a much bolder data strategy than Hong Kong in using big data to enhance governance........ “The biggest difference between Hong Kong and Shenzhen is the mindset,” he said. “We are constantly looking for more efficient and advanced ways to run and govern the city, while Hong Kong believes in its ‘small government, non-interventionist’ approach.”......... Shenzhen could benefit from smart governance as it had a large population but only a small number of civil servants.......... the government’s data platforms had accumulated more than 22.1 billion pieces of data about

20 million people, 3.6 million companies and 14 million properties........ there were only about 40,000 civil servants in Shenzhen, of which about 25,000 were police officers

..... in 2013, Shenzhen was able to carry out predictive analysis of the public demand for education and health care services........ “The process of simplifying government approvals was a trigger for the government to carry out the restructuring reform



I think the Chinese have this attitude that, well, everyone in China is free to join the party. And once they join the party it is a meritocratic process. You can rise up the ranks based on your ability and work ethic. So it is a very democratic process. They also take great pride in having bureaucracies that actually work. They try to teach African countries the best practices from their own bureaucracies.

To that I say, that is all fine and dandy. Why not go one step further? Let the party offer two candidates for president every five years. And let ordinary Chinese pick one through a secret ballot. Let there be a universal franchise. Maybe that is where this Shenzen experiment will end up.

Shenzhen, Beijing lose out to Chengdu as China’s best performing city economy, says report Chengdu has for the third time scooped top spot among Chinese cities for economic performance........ As the provincial capital of Sichuan province, Chengdu – along with Chongqing – is one of the twin growth engines in China’s western region, having cemented its place as a manufacturing hub specialising in defence-related production....... “The city’s geographic location inside the Diamond Economic Zone makes it an important gateway for the southwest region. Investments in a 10,000km Chengdu-Europe Express Rail will help improve China’s logistical connection with the western world supporting the [Belt and Road] Initiative,” the report said........ Shenzhen, home to China’s version of Silicon Valley where technology giants Huawei and Tencent are based, dropped from first to second place............. President Xi Jinping’s endorsement of Shenzhen as a “key pilot zone for socialism” will allow the city to carry out bolder reforms and may mean it snaps up some of crisis-hit Hong Kong’s financial services.



Shenzhen turning its back on Hong Kong property model in favor of affordable public housing
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Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Hong Kong: Endgame Scenarios

Endgame 1: The Protestors Get Tired

One weekend they simply don't show up. Because they got tired. I don't see this happening. If anything, like a hurricane in the Bahamas, this thing seems to only gather further momentum.

Endgame 2: Beijing Sends In The Force

The PLA crosses the border and marches in. I don't see this happening. Beijing is smart enough to realize it will face major international sanctions. The tariffs that only the US has imposed, many major countries will impose. This act should be the least palatable to Beijing. This route chosen leads to a collapse of the communist party inside China because it starts a chain reaction.

Endgame 3: Inaction

Which is what is happening right now. Carrie Lam will not move the needle. Beijing will not move the needle. They basically hope for endgame 1, even though they do not so spell it out.

Endgame 4: The Protestors Get Better Organized, Locally As Well As Globally

Unless they want to also play the tire you out game, the protestors have no choice but to get better organized. Join this or that political party in the millions. Have elected leadership. Hold regular meetings. Pass resolutions after debate and discussion. Organize globally. Although the movement has been local to Hong Kong, it is only a matter of time before some questions will arise. Why are your demands good only for Hong Kong? What about the rest of China? In China, there might be fear. But what about the global Chinese diaspora? Why are you not winning the debate among the global Chinese diaspora? An interesting part of this development will be that the protest leaders will have to face the fact that they don't necessarily want a copycat political system to what America has. The political and economic system in the US is right now undergoing serious internal questioning. But unless the movement is capable of that debate and discussion, it is not a mature movement.

This last option seems to be the only available option.

Hurricane Hong Kong, will you hit Alabama?


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