If Modi manages to get the BJP past 200 seats, all bets are off. The BJP getting 40 out of 80 seats in UP finishes Mulayam as a PM candidate. The BJP grabbing 20 of Bihar's 40 seats also makes sure Nitish stays in Patna. That might also be the Bihari people's way of saying they like Nitish so much they want him to stay put in Patna for another 10 years. And no matter how well Jayalalita does in Tamilnadu she might just be angling to be Deputy Prime Minister.
Modi has been running an impressive campaign. It is pretty much unprecedented. His style makes it look like he is the only one running for Prime Minister.
Giving Bihar Special Category status gets Nitish. Doing the Lokpal Bill gets Kejriwal.
This is not me writing off the so-called Third Front, something that does not exist by the way, at least not yet. This is me saying Modi has been running a campaign the likes of which I have not seen.
Nitish has to grab at least 25 seats in Bihar if he is to be a contender. But it is possible the people of Bihar want Modi in Delhi and Nitish in Bihar. Nitish Kumar's JD(U) might win over 60% of the seats in Bihar's next state elections. A 14% growth rate for a landlocked agricultural state is mind blowing.
He is saying he is not a candidate for PM. Then he is saying the NDA candidate for PM has to be a BJP person. He is also saying he will contest the 2014 elections along with the BJP. As in he is not in mind to leave the NDA. Then he is on record saying he will snap away from the NDA "in a minute" should the BJP project Modi as its PM candidate. He has also insisted the BJP must decide on its prime ministerial candidate before the elections.
This might partly be his way of tricking the Congress into believing he is up for grabs. Perhaps the Congress can be tricked into giving Bihar special status. I don't see that happening, but nice try.
If Nitish does not want to become PM in 2014 he wants to support someone who will grant special status to Bihar.
It is so obvious Modi will be the face of the BJP in 2014. It is his party after all. Modi is the most popular face inside the BJP. So if he is projected as the face of the BJP in 2014 does Nitish quit the NDA? I don't see him joining the Congress led alliance, the UPA.
I think Nitish as Chief Minister of Bihar for 10 more years will be great for Bihar's development. Most Biharis don't want him to go to Delhi because they want him to continue in Patna.
On the other hand I also feel India deserves Nitish. Nitish is the best politician India has today. Nitish has a better economic record than Modi. Nitish does not have the Godhra taint. In the Nitish model there is a better focus on human development. In the Modi model sometimes the poor get left behind. Modi is urban, India is rural, Nitish is rural.
The scenario I see is Modi gets projected as the BJP candidate. Nitish breaks up the NDA. There is no more NDA left. The BJP is on its own. After all Nitish is the BJP's biggest ally. He decides to contest in all 40 seats in Bihar and wins 35, because he has been so good as Chief Minister.
Start with the fact that Gujrat is small. It is almost half the size of Bihar. Modi starts with 16 MPs in Gujrat, Nitish with 35 in Bihar. There is a Nitish wave nationally created from his decision to break up the NDA. Because of that wave both the Congress and the BJP stay below the 150 mark. The non Congress, non BJP parties together get over 243 seats. 243 is not 271. Or maybe the non Congress, non BJP parties do manage to cross the 271 mark. Or if they do not, the Congress or the BJP is forced to extend outside support.
You might be looking at a scenario where there is no more a UPA, there is no more a NDA. But there is a newly constituted Third Front. And the JD (U) is the biggest member of that Third Front with 35 seats.
JD(U) - 35
Mayawati - 30
Mulayam - 30
Mamata - 25
Biju - 15
DMK - 20
CPI (M) - 20
Pawar - 10
AIADMK - 10
CPI - 5
TDP - 5
JD (S) - 5
Laloo - 4
Paswan - 1
Others - 30 or more
Congress - 150 or less
BJP - 150 or less
A better scenario is one where the Third Front forges a pre-poll alliance. So there is only one Third Front candidate in each of the 543 constituencies. I think the Third Front could cross the 300 tally in that circumstance.
The slogan wold be, Nitish ne Bihar ke liye jo kiya, ab wo pure Bharat ke liye karega. That would be the message, but the slogan would have to be shorter, catchier.
A better option still would be to codify Nitishism, so that what is happening in Bihar is not attributed to the charisma of any one person but can be replicated everywhere where the basic programs are followed.
Codifying Nitishism, now that's a thought.
A pre-poll alliance means a manifesto, a code of conduct.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar today exuded confidence that the next government at the Centre will have to grant special status to Bihar as that government cannot be formed without the support of 40 MPs of the state.
A day after the BJP ruled out the possibility of Nitish Kumar becoming the NDA's prime ministerial candidate, he said he was never a contender for the post. .... Nitish Kumar had said earlier that it would not take a minute for his party to break ties with the BJP if the latter projected Modi as its prime ministerial candidate. ..... He had also objected to his photographs with Modi in newspaper advertisements during the BJP national executive meeting in Patna in June 2010.
When asked about Kumar's silence on Modi's victory, state BJP President C P Thakur told reporters he couldn't fathom why Kumar did not make a customary gesture of congratulating Modi, which was common in public life. .... On Kumar's insistence, the BJP had kept Modi away from campaign in Bihar for both, the 2009 general election and the 2010 state assembly poll. Upset over the publication of an advertisement in newspapers about donation provided by Modi for Kosi flood victims of Bihar, Kumar had cancelled a dinner he had to host for BJP leaders during the BJP's national executive meeting at Patna in 2010. ..... "Left to myself, Modi should be BJP's prime ministerial candidate in 2014 Lok Sabha poll", said Thakur the Bihar BJP chief. ..... Even senior BJP leader and deputy chief minister Sushil Modi, who, like Nitish, in May this year, had black-flagged Narendra Modi's credentials to be NDA's PM candidate, made a salutory reference to the Gujarat victory. "Narendra Modi's victory for the third consecutive term has proved beyond doubt that people do not ignore development", Sushil Modi told reporters.
Banerjee is working on a strategy to bring around an alliance of regional parties as a possible alternative to both the Congress and BJP after the next Lok Sabha elections.
After senior leaders of the BJP appeared to endorse Narendra Modi's bid for Prime Minister, the party course corrected yesterday. Speaking to NDTV, senior BJP leader Venkaiah Naidu said, "The party has not taken any decision on the Prime Ministerial candidate. Our allies in the NDA need to be consulted before taking a decision." ...... "The BJP should decide who their leader will be. If their party speaks in one voice it will be better for all of us," said JD(U) spokesperson Sanjay Singh. ..... Ms Swaraj said that she believes Mr Modi is fit to be Prime Minister. Mr Advani followed a day later with this tribute - "Someone once asked me if Modi has become bigger than the party. I replied that in a family sometimes the younger ones are more capable then then the seniors and in such a case, seniors do not feel bad, they feel happy that a youth from their family is so capable." .... The Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has repeatedly stressed that his alliance with the BJP, with whom he runs Bihar, will collapse if Mr Modi is named the NDA's prime ministerial candidate. ..... The communal riots of Gujarat in 2002 in which nearly 1200 people were killed, most of them Muslims, have led to leaders like the Bihar chief minister wanting to be politically distant from him. Mr Kumar is supported by the large Muslim population in his state; he has refused to let Mr Modi campaign in Bihar.
more than a triumphant testament of the politics of prosperity .... In a country where the attitudes of its ruling class are invariably incompatible with the aspirations of its people ..... a politician with integrity and vision ..... in an India of calcified reputations in governance, change becomes Modi, and going by the velocity of his ascent, his domain is bound to be larger than Gujarat. .... India's most popular chief minister-and BJP's only regional leader with a national fan following .... In Moditva, the bestselling idea of Indian Right, merges the uses of good economics and the reach of evangelical politics..... he buys his goods for mass consumption from the marketplaces of twenty-first century...... an ability to deliver on economic promises
now unquestionably the tallest mass leader of the BJP, with whom his own party, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), has been running a coalition government for seven years....... The state unit of the BJP was euphoric over the Gujarat results and was quick to proclaim Modi as the top prime ministerial contender within the party. BJP leaders and workers distributed sweets and burst crackers in Patna and other parts of Bihar on Thursday...... Political observers believed that Nitish's silence only reasserted his party's unchanged stand on Modi. ..... "We respect the people's mandate in Gujarat," JD-U spokesman Neeraj Kumar said. "As far as the prime ministerial candidate is concerned, we have made the qualification criteria clear. The candidate should have secular credentials." ..... Sharad Yadav said:"The matter will be discussed at the NDA meeting."
Modi does not get along with Gadkari ..... There is heady talk among Modi loyalists of the party under his leadership getting 200 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. But this is a tall order for a party - it will have to come up with a new version of the NDA. ...... If Modi's influence can gain the party 180-plus seats, then he is the natural choice. But a lower tally could result in a candidate more acceptable to allies. In that event, the prime ministerial race would be wide open. .... the RSS. Modi is a pracharak (ordinary member) of the organisation. But it is no secret that his relations with the outfit, which does not brook the kind of personality cult that he fosters, are not the best.
"Gujarat to jhaanki hai, Dilli abhi baaki hai" (Gujarat is only a trailer, Delhi is the real battle). .... "This is a win for all those people across the country who want India to prosper" ..... And in a typical wisecrack, he announced that he would visit Delhi on December 27 for a day, though aware that the path to Delhi is strewn with obstacles in the form of RSS and the Delhi Durbar.... common knowledge that BJP president Nitin Gadkari and senior party leader Sushma Swaraj both harbour prime pinisterial ambitions. Former party president L. K. Advani too is considered an impediment in Modi's chalo Dilli plan. ..... "We have narrowed down on 250 winnable constituencies across country. We think the BJP can at least 200 of these if Modi is made the PM candidate," said a Modi strategist. ..... the urban centres are considered key catchment areas ..... he hopes to defeat the politics of caste and religious division. ..... his plans include a nationwide " Swami Vivekananda yatra" .... Modi's Mission PM is to become its star campaigner in next year's assembly polls in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi.
In spite of not fielding a single Muslim candidate, the BJP managed 12 out of the 19 seats which had Muslim voters as the determining factor. ..... "The Congress has always treated Muslims as a block to be exploited politically, but has done nothing in real terms for the community..... Muslims in this state are getting equal opportunities to grow and most importantly with a steady law and order situation, business is flourishing unhindered ..... "The community has moved beyond 2002 in Gujarat and has voted overwhelmingly for BJP in the state."
In the urban centres it appears as if Modi has cast a spell and turned Gujarat into 'Modidum'.... In the final phase of the campaigning the swaying crowds that flocked to Modi's poll rallies to hear his power packed speeches inter-spread with sharp rhetoric , unprecedented colour and cutting language calculated to emotionally move the people the public response to him could only be compared with the response that perhaps Mrs. Gandhi got in her heady days or Rajiv Gandhi triggered in the emotional wave following her assassination or , as old timers say, Pandit Nehru got soon after independence. .... "Brothers and sisters, you are happy but I am not. For, I know in the past 12 years I have only done the job of filling the pot holes left behind by Congress's misrule since independence. But now the surface is ready. And on it we shall start constructing a shining and magnificent Gujarat from January 1, 2013." ..... "All of you take a holiday at least once year. I am that labourer of six crore Gujaratis who has not taken a single holiday in 12 years. I have only chanted Gujarat, Gujarat, Gujarat." ..... "Astonished by the pace of development old timers in villages often ask from where does this Modi fellow bring the funds. I have been like a sentinel sitting on the treasury, not allowing any palm (Congress symbol) to fall on it. Earlier this money used to go into the pockets of Congressmen and the middle men but now I am spending it on the people." ..... the record 70 per cent turnout in the first round of polling on December 13. ....... "Rahul Baba recently said that once when Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru was in jail Mahatma Gandhi , who was at that time staying in the Nehrus' ancestral home, Anand Bhavan, purposely slept on the floor to express his sympathy with Nehru . But what Rahul Baba didn't tell you was that Motilalji who was Pt. Nehru's father and was staying in the same house slept on the cot". ..... in 15 days beginning December 1 to December 15, Modi carried out 102 public meetings hopping all over the state. On an average, he addressed more than six meetings daily ..... While he has been very active on Twitter, his website Narendramodi. in continues to draw large number of visitors. Then came the Google hangout where he interacted with the youth, in a first for the politicos in India...... pulled out the biggest rabbit when he campaigned across the state through three dimensional holographic projection technology, again a first for Indian politics..... He waves like a king .... Modi's biggest strength lies in his direct connect with the people, whom he engages with ease. Instead of delivering a speech, he talks to the crowd, asking questions and touching nerves. He makes them laugh as he derides Congress, and even the mention of "Soniaben" raises laughter from the crowd, which expects acerbic deliveries to follow. He laughs with them, obliges them and then turns derision to anger. From asking Sonia to do her "homework", he roars on Prime Minister's comment on "minorities living in fear" as he tears into the Congress and many in the crowd nod in agreement...... In between he punches in the most important message - vote for BJP in Gujarat to get rid of Congress in Delhi. .... Gujarati superstar Paresh Rawal too has been a big hit with the voters.
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) president Adi Godrej said Modi's being in office again would further boost investors' confidence in the state and provide political stability. .... Modi has delivered on a basic inclusive development agenda that goes beyond Roti Kapada Makan - education and healthcare ..... heavy investments are flowing into Gujarat because Modi has adopted industry-friendly policies and improved basic infrastructure and governance.
a younger generation has no memory of Congress rule. He said that to talk of the incumbency effect makes little sense when Congress ceased being a local party years ago..... He created new constituencies among youth, professions and the digerati making the Congress helpless and showing the old BJP to be yesterday's newspaper. His control of power made party politics an ineffective exercise. Modi had turned problem solving in Gujarat into a one stop window himself...... However, results indicate that this mainstream juggernaut had no place for Dalits and Muslims. Tribals were a bit more ambivalent being anti-Muslim and yet development did not really touch them...... Modi is almost singular and unitary in his style of power. The question is if such a style fits a coalitional politics at the centre. The doubts are at several levels..... The cadres see him as a match-winner but does the RSS want a gamechanger whom they cannot control? ..... We also have to ask whether the party will be comfortable with him. He is not a man who likes to share the stage. .... Modi represents majoritarian fears which increases minoritarian anxieties.... He wants growth and urbanisation but one has little sense of his foreign policy or his federal vision of India. Rahul is almost a tabula rasa. He acquires identity but little character through family. .... Democracy needs something more thoughtful than Modi or Rahul. In fact the spectre of Modi entering Delhi might force our society to think more creatively. The idea of Modi versus Rahul says little about the imagination of India...... is the Gujarat model of growth relevant for India? Secondly is Modi's style of leadership appropriate for governing a nation?
The most satisfying outcome for Modi would be that the Muslim indifference to his Sadbhavana rallies failed to halt his juggernaut. Even his decision not to grant any ticket to Muslim candidates could not harm the BJP. ..... BJP's ally in the NDA -- JD(U) -- however was not impressed much by Modi's victory. Its leaders made it clear that the party would not back him as the NDA's prime ministerial candidate.
Gujarat is a role model for elections. The entire election was fought on the development plank. ...... It was not just the Congress that Modi fought, it went much deeper as he fought a section his own party high command, RSS, the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Bharatiya Kisan Sangh, all of whom rallied behind rebel BJP veteran Keshubhai Patel, who was propped up to contain Modi in Saurashtra, the heartland of the saffron movement. .... In his thumping win, Modi has not only vanquished his detractors in the saffron fold, but has also crushed the Gujarat Congress irreparably.
Last week, more than 100 nations, including the United States, recognized the new Syrian opposition council as the legitimate representative of the country, a boost for the opposition forces that have been bombing regime targets in and around Damascus, once an impregnable stronghold of the Assad regime.
he sharply chastised the United States for its role in toppling Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi of Libya, describing that outcome as a mistake that created chaos and ultimately led to the death of Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens in Benghazi. .... “No matter how they explained their position, the state is falling apart,” he said. “Interethnic, inter-clan and intertribal conflicts continue. Moreover, it went as far as the murder of the United States ambassador.” He added, “I was asked here about mistakes: Isn’t it a mistake? And you want us to constantly repeat these mistakes in other countries?” ..... Thousands of Syrian men who attended universities in Russia and returned to live in Syria have Russian wives.
Russia, along with Iran, has been one of the Assad government’s few dependable international allies. However, there has been a change of tone in recent comments from Moscow. .... “Obviously the Kremlin tried to assert its influence recently to compel Assad make some compromises in his unwavering stand based on violence and military pressure and even start some negotiations and make some other steps toward reconciliation, but to no avail” .... “That certainly rubbed Putin the wrong way, and the Russian leader is having a hard time hiding his irritation with Assad” .... “The Kremlin’s rhetoric we heard today in regard to Assad was unthinkable just a few months ago.”
WikiLeaks will release one million documents next year affecting every country in the world, founder Julian Assange said in a speech from the balcony of the Ecuadorian embassy in London on Thursday..... "True democracy is not the White House, true democracy is not cameras, true democracy is the resistance of people armed with the truth against lies from Tahrir to London"
“Our bill would protect 99.81 percent of the American people from an increase in taxes.” .... Democrats said Boehner’s abrupt decision to shift to his Plan B — legislation drafted unilaterally by Republicans — reflected a calculation that he lacked support from his own rank and file to win the votes needed for the type of agreement he was negotiating with the president. ..... He also has offered more than $800 billion in spending cuts over a decade, half of it from Medicare and Medicaid, $200 billion from farm and other benefit programs, $100 billion from defense and $100 billion from a broad swath of government accounts ranging from parks to transportation to education. .... In a key concession to Republicans, the president also has agreed to slow the rise in cost-of-living increases in Social Security and other benefit programs, at a savings estimated at about $130 billion over a decade.
