Showing posts with label National Democratic Alliance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Democratic Alliance. Show all posts

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Modi's Second And Bigger Victory






No matter which way you look at it, it is just plain remarkable. Modi has managed to take his tally to almost 350. I have a feeling, by 2024, that tally might inch towards 400. The Congress Party needed a sympathy wave in 1984 to be in that 400 range. Modi is depending on his work, his organization, the electorate's intelligence.

India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

The terror attack in Kashmir and the Indian response to go deep inside Pakistani territory to wipe out a camp of terrorists sure played a role. That created a sympathy wave. But that was the icing on the cake. This dude has been doing the work.

He is a risktaker. 2014-2019 was the hard part. The next phase is not necessarily easier. But I would argue it is relatively easier. He does not need to give the Indian economy another shock therapy like demonetization.

Modi is an excellent communicator. He has a full agenda. I think he would be smart to co-opt Rahul Gandhi's Universal Basic Income idea for the bottom 20% and make his own. It is a sound idea. Automation will only accelerate. That has to be allowed. The productivity gains have to pay in the form of Value Added Tax. And that VAT has to fund the UBI.

Indira Gandhi nationalized the banks. Indian banks are state-owned. In that way India is China. But when you have as much corruption as there has been in India, and for such a long time, you end up with a huge pileup of non-performing loans, which drags down the economy's prospects. Some clean-up has been done. Much more remains to be done. Funneling credit to the small and medium enterprises, and the mom and pop stores, that are the dynamo of the economy is where job creation is. That has to be a top priority.

Sometime in the next few years, Modi has to take India to double-digit growth rates. That is the only way it can someday catch up to China. China growing at 5-6% and India growing at 10-11% is how. At this stage, 5-6% is excellent for China. But India can only truly reap its demographic dividend by growing at double-digit growth rates.

India is such a vast and diverse country. And it is a vibrant democracy. Everybody has an opinion. When Indians go grocery shopping, they haggle. It is free speech in action. To take major steps of reform while also dancing to the tunes of the electoral rhythms is a challenge. Modi is excellent at it. He is gifted. He is hard working. (The guy does not sleep.)

Overall I am optimistic that Modi will keep delivering. But the political path is bound to be full of surprises.

Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), India is projected to have become a larger economy than the US by 2030. It is befitting that that happens on Modi's watch. That is the projection. Modi has the option to accelerate it. The projection puts India at number two, and China at number one.

Chandrababu Naidu's move a few years ago to walk out of the NDA, in hindsight, looks like was a bad move. He has been wiped out, in his own state, and at the national level. One worries for the city of Amaravati.

West Bengal will fall. It will fall into the BJP's lap. That is the trend.

Modi basically repeated his 2014 performance in the Hindi heartland. That is quite a statement.

The BJP is the largest political party in the world.








Make in India should be aligned with a revamped Foreign Trade Policy to capture export market share amid ongoing dislocations in production base on the back of geopolitical uncertainty like trade wars and Brexit

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Wednesday, May 22, 2019

India 2019: Looks Like A TsuNAMO

90 minutes into the vote counting, and it is beginning to look like a massive victory for Narendra Modi. If he pulls a hattrick and wins again in 2024, he joins the rank of the Congress Party's Nehru. This is happening after a long time in India that a party with a majority is winning another five-year term. He should be able to give India double-digit growth rates before he goes to the people again in 2024.





3:30 AM EST Update



My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

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Sunday, May 19, 2019

India 2019: Exit Polls



Most exit polls show Modi coming back as Prime Minister.



Modi Expects More Than 300 Seats
My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

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Friday, May 17, 2019

India 2019: The Final Lap

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

India 2019: Congress Not Wanting PM Position Is A Game Changer

"Central Role" For Rahul Gandhi In Forming New Government: Tejashwi Yadav
Rahul Gandhi's Hands-On Solution After Helicopter Glitch In Himachal
Congress not averse to supporting regional party leader for PM post: Ghulam Nabi Azad
TRS not averse to go with Congress, if PM is regional
Lok Sabha Elections 2019: PM Modi Is "Losing And Is Desperate", Says Congress Leader Salman Khurshid He said, "He is changing course because he is desperate. He knows he is losing and he is desperate. You just compare the last campaign with this campaign. He was in control of that campaign but he is not in control of this campaign."
Lok Sabha Elections 2019 Highlights: Sonia Gandhi Writes To Party Leaders For May 23 Opposition Meet

The Congress declaring it does not necessarily want a PM from the Congress party is a game changer. That vastly expands the possibilities of UPA-4. It will become harder for the BJP to pull in a few more parties even if it is near something like 250. Some current members of the NDA like Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan might desert the NDA if push comes to shove.

But the Congress supporting from the outside drama should not be enacted. Whoever comes to power should give a full five-year term. PM or no PM the Congress must participate in the government.

Step one has to be to form the coalition, UPA-4. This is a new, expanded coalition. Then those aspiring for leadership should come forward, and the pool of MPs should vote, in two rounds if necessary. That would be the most stable way to do it. Backroom consensus building is b.s. And each party's strength would get reflected in the cabinet. So the Congress would get the largest number of ministers.

I would think Rahul Gandhi would be most suitable for Convenor of the coalition, and the best person to serve as PM would be Chandrababu Naidu, who just so happens to be the most senior politician in the country.

This move by Congress is not necessarily magnanimous. No matter what happens, the Congress by itself will be much smaller than all the smaller parties combined. This is just respecting arithmetic. This is basic democracy.


Convenor of UPA-4: Rahul Gandhi
Prime Minister: Chandrababu Naidu
Defense Minister: Mayawati
Telecommunications Minister: Akhilesh Yadav

Naidu because he could give India double-digit growth rates.

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Saturday, May 11, 2019

My Projection Puts Modi At 300-350

My projection puts the Modi-led NDA at 300-350. And if he gets another five years, he will be unbeatable in 2024. The Indian economy is projected to have become larger than the US economy by 2030, adjusted for purchasing power parity. I can imagine Modi being Prime Minister in 2030 when that happens.

Modi has clearly spoken against hate crimes. And there are laws in India against hate crimes. Those laws have to be actively enforced.






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Sunday, December 27, 2015

Opposition Ki Jaroorat



Opposition Ki Jaroorat

Bharat ke rajniti ko do cheej ki sakht jarrorat hai. Ek ki paanch sal mein sirf do deen chunav ho. Yani national, state aur local election sirf us do deen honge. Ravivar ko, chhutti ke din. Taki log booth par asani se jaa sake.

Ek wo, aur dusra desh ke rajniti ka bi-polarization. Mera Modi se man ub gaya wo main nahin kah raha. Actually, I am more excited about Modi now than I was about a year ago. Ek sal pahle to sirf promise tha, kam to kuchh dikha nahin tha. Ab to maine kaam bhi dekh liya. Bahut thos kam kar rahe hain. Lekin Modi ka bhavishy nirnay karne wala main kaun hota? Modi ko banaya bharat ki janata ne. Modi ko tikayega bharat ki janata. Main to us equation mein hun nahin.

Lekin desh ke rajniti ko polarization chahiye. Ek hai National Democratic Alliance. Aur us mein jarrorat se jyada alliance partner hain wasi baat nahin. Balki jitne chahiye satta mein tike rahne ke liye, usse kahin kam hain. Dusra pole hai Grand Alliance. Wo abhi Bihar mein shuru huwa hai. Usko national banana desh ke liye bahut jaroori hai.

Bijli nikalne ke liye koyala jab jalate ho, to kitne heat ka bijli banta hai aur kitna heat exhaust ke raste jaa ke waste ho jata hai? Percentage kya hai? Bigya jara enlighten karo. To wahi baat hai. 2014 ke chunav mein 30% BJP ko mat mila. Uske adhar pe akele usne bahumat le aaya. 20% Congress ko. Lekin uske adhar pe wo Opposition ka jagah bhi nahin bana payi. Yani ki wo exhaust mein chala gaya vote. Aur banki 50% to total waste. Yani ki abhi Bharat ke loktantr naam ka jo diesel engine hai, uska efficiency hai sirf 30%. Tees percent se bijli nikal raha hai, banki 70% waste mein jaa rahi hai.

Bipolarization ho jati hai, to NDA ka bhi size shayad badhega. To NDA aur GA. Tab efficiency almost 100% par pahunch jayegi. Yani ki 55% la ke koi sarkar banayega. Aur 45% ka opposition.

Lekin usko shayad 100% nahin kaha ja sakta. Vote kitne ne diye? 60% ne. To abhi efficiency 30% nahin hai, abhi 15% par hai. Bipolarization ke baad wo pahunch jayega 60% par. Yani ki 60% heat ka bijli niklega, banki gaya exhaust pipe se bahar.

To bipolarization BJP aur Modi ke liye bhi achhi baat hogi. A superior democracy will spring forth a superior economy. Aur Modi ka total focus hai economy.

Modi ka total focus hai economy. Wo unka strength bhi hai aur weakness bhi. Social issues par wo nadarad rahte hain. Bharat mein BJP aur America mein Republican Party kuchh milte julte hain. Pratyek desh mein ek political spectrum hota hai, extreme left se extreme right tak. Adhikansh log center mein hote hain. Sarkare adhiakansh waise log banate hain jinka bichar centrist ho. To Modi khud centrist hain. Lekin BJP ka jo tent hai, usmein center se le ke right se le ke far right se le ke kucch extreme right tatwa bhi hain. Modi khud na far right hain, na extreme right. Agar hote to main pasand nahin karta. Aur main bade gaur se dekh raha hoon. Hindu hone ka pride hai, aur hona bhi chahiye. Lekin auro ke prati ghrina nahin hai dil mein. Kamsekam mere direct observation mein abhi tak mere ko ek bhi waisa evidence nahin mila.

Lekin tent bada hai. Ek kah sakte ho aadmi kamjor hai. Apne hi tent ke logon ko thikane nahin laga sakta. Dusra perspective ye ho sakta hai ki ye aadmi kamjor nahin hai ki ye ek aise desh ka Pradhan Mantri hai jo duniya ka sabse bada loktantr hai. Bharat: loktantr ki janani bhumi hai. Loktantr British ne upahar nahin diya. Duniya ka pahla ganatantr Buddha ne sthapit kiya. Sanatani shaitano ne ujad ke fek diya, wo alag baat hai. Bandar. Monkey.

To loktantr mein kya hota hai ki jo galat bolta hai usko bhi bolne ka adhikar hota hai. Free speech. To ye to achhi baat hai ki desh ka pradhan mantri kisi ki bolti band nahin kar sakta. That is what we want.

To wahan par kami dikhi Opposition ki. Ki log jab galat bolte hain, to uske biruddh aap kyon nahin bolte? Wo to PM ka nahin Opposition ka kaam hai. Laloo aur Nitish ka kaam hai. National economy par top level ka kaam ho raha hai. Modi is a gift to India. Par social issues par space hai Opposition ke liye. BJP ke tent ke under aise log hain jinko democratic counter karne ki jaroorat hai. Kabhi love jihad, to kabhi ghar wapasi. Hote hote dadri. To us space mein Grand Alliance nirnayak role khel sakti hai.

Yani ki agar desh mein intolerance badha hai, jaisa ki kaha jata hai, to uski jimmedari Opposition ko leni padegi. Agar aap is tarah bikhre na hote to far right ke logon ki himmat patli ho jati. To aap is tarah jo bikhre pade hain, usse desh mein far right ko jaroorat se jyada jagah mil raha hai. The opposition is responsible.

Speech aur peaceful political action ----- loktantr mein ye allow hai. Shantipurvak aap sangathit ho sakte hain. Shantipurvak aap rajnitik karyakram kar sakte ho. Wo adhikar far right ko bhi hai, far left ko bhi, center left ko bhi.

Violence to na social issue hai, na political issue hai. Violence is and should be illegal, and the law should be strictly enforced. Murder ke biruddh to law hai. Hate crime ke biruddh law hai ki nahin? Nahin hai to banao. Law enforcement ko sirf din dahade murder hi nahin, domestic violence, caste violence, aur religious riots ko bhi tackle karna hoga. Us kabil banaya jana chahiye. Kaun kisko mar raha hai hame us se matlab nahin. Ham mardhar hone nahin denge. Hame sirf usse matlab hai. Law enforcement ka wo attitude hona chahiye. A riots-free India is possible. Tsunami/typhoon ke liye jis tarah early warning system hota hai, usi tarah desh bhar mein riots ke liye early warning system hone chahiye. Ki haan, yahan lag raha hai sthiti bigar ke riot ke taraf chali jayegi, to baat wahan tak pahunchne se pahle force ko wahan par pahunch jana hai. Jo karna hai so karna hai.

Law and order to first priority hai. Nitish ko log credit de dete hain. Ye kiya, wo kiya, Bihar mein bikas kiya. Are, unhone to sirf law and order take care kiya. Bikas to apne aap ho gayi. Pahle wo Sushasan Babu bane uske baad hi Bikashpurush banne ka mauka mila.

To desh bhar mein violence ko secular kism se tackle karna hai. Yani ki domestic violence ho ya caste violence ho ya phir religious violence: zero tolerance. Jaan aur dhan ki suraksha adhunik rajya (modern state) ka pratham aur sabse pramukh jimmewari hai. To wo capacity building ek pramukh rajnitik mudda hai. National, state aur local sab level par.

Grand Alliance ko ek national rup dena hoga. Aur social issues par bahut jyada space hai jo cover kiya ja sakta hai. Jaise ki Dalit liberation, wo to Mayawati ko hi karna hoga. Kaun karega? Bharat ka liberation to Gandhi aur Nehru aur Patel ko hi karna pada ki nahin? Ki koi Germany ya France se aa ke kar diya?

Ek democratic structure bana do to koi lafda nahin hota ki kaun neta banega, kya hoga. Vote kar do. Ho gaya nirnay.

Dalit liberation ka rasta Bharat liberation se fark nahin hai. Ki hum hain Harijan. Hamara naam Dalit nahin. Wo hamara abhi ka political status hai jise hum khatm karenge. Hamara apna ek alag dharm hai. Hum Rambhakt hain. Jis tarah Old Testament sirf Yahudi ka nahin Isai ka bhi, usi tarah Ved Puran Upanishad hamara bhi, lekin hamara pramukh granth hai Tulsidas ka Ramayana. Ramcharitmanas. Jis tarah Muslman ka apna alag dharm, Buddhist ka apna alag dharm, usi tarah Harijan ka bhi apna alag dharm. Ravana bhi Sanatani Shaitan, Valmiki bhi Sanatani Shaitan. Mandir toda Sanatani Shaitan ne, dosh de rahe Musalman ko. Harijan Muslim ko divide and rule.

Laoo, ya Nitish, ya Akhilesh, ya Mulayam, ya Modi koi aa ke liberate karne wala nahin. Liberation ko khud ka kaam hota hai.

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Thursday, December 10, 2015

नीतिश को ग्रैंड अलायन्स के लिए सुझाव


  • ग्रैंड अलायन्स को एक राष्ट्रिय स्वरुप देने का प्रयास हो। 
  • सदस्य पार्टी यो को सभी तह पर एक पद एक उम्मेदवार पर जाना होगा। 
  • सदस्य पार्टी के दिल्ली में जितने सांसद हैं सब एक जगह आएंगे, वो निर्वाचक मंडल हुवा। उसमें ५०% से ज्यादा मत जो बटोरे वो ग्रैंड अलायन्स का राष्ट्रिय अध्यक्ष हुवा। 
  • वही फोर्मुला राज्य स्तर पर भी लागु हो। 
  • लेकिन ये तो संगठन वाली बात हुई। उससे ज्यादा महत्वपुर्ण बात है विज़न। Anti-BJP is not a vision. 
  • ५ स: सुशासन, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, संरचना, सुलभता। 
  • लक्ष्य है डबल डिजिट ग्रोथ रेट। 

युपी में ऐसा नहीं हो सकता? मायावती और अखिलेश ५०-५० सीट डिस्ट्रीब्यूशन करें २०१७ में। जो ज्यादा सीट जितेगा वो मुख मंत्री। ये बात मायावती को बोलो तो वो कहेंगी आप अपनी हवा मिठाई घी के साथ खाओ। 
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Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Jayalalita And Patnaik Supporting Modi Ends Third Front Possibilities

Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik - TeachAIDS
Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik - TeachAIDS (Photo credit: TeachAIDS)
Leaders from the parties of both Jayalalita and Patnaik have been talking favorably of Modi. I think that is a sign the Third Front that did not materialize pre poll will not materialize post poll either. Being anti-Modi is not enough ammunition. 

This signalling has happened before the formal results are out. That is a sign the exit polls and other surveys might not be off like in 2004 and 2009. 

But we still have to wait for May 16. 

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Monday, March 17, 2014

Modi's Last Mile Problem That Nitish Does Not Have

English: Indian actor Salman Khan
English: Indian actor Salman Khan (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
NDA gets 229, UPA 129 but Modi faces a last mile challenge: survey
the NDA is likely to get 229 seats while the UPA is likely to win 129. The survey gave alternate front 55 seats and the others got 130. Significantly, the others include parties like Trinamool Congresss and the AIADMK. Independently, the BJP is likely to get 195 seats and the Congress 106.
Modi is my second choice for PM. I don't dislike him. I think his economic record in Gujrat is impressive. But why settle for second when first is available? Nitish is my first choice. Like Salman Khan said, may the best candidate win. But Nitish is only a contender if he gets more than 20 seats in Bihar. Otherwise it is a mad dash to 271 by the likes of Modi and Jayalalita. Nitish getting less than 10 MPs might also be read as a mandate for Modi. If the leader of the so-called Third Front can be beat on his own turf by Modi, that perhaps would mean Modi has a mandate, even if not a majority.

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