Barackface: Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption

Tuesday, April 08, 2025

Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption

Trump’s Tariffs and the Coming Great Disruption

In the 1920s and 1930s, a wave of protectionism swept the globe. Countries raised tariffs against each other in a self-defeating spiral that deepened the Great Depression. Today, the world faces a very different landscape. While President Donald Trump’s trade policies echo that earlier era of economic nationalism, the global context has fundamentally changed. That’s both a reason for cautious optimism—and for serious concern.

Unlike the interwar period, today’s world is more economically integrated. The rise of regional trade blocs like the European Union, ASEAN, Mercosur, and the African Continental Free Trade Area creates strong counterweights to unilateral trade wars. Countries are more likely now to lower tariffs among themselves to offset the impact of US protectionism, preserving access to markets and supply chains. The global economy has matured, and many nations have learned from history.

Moreover, while the US is still a giant consumer market and the dollar remains the de facto global currency, America no longer holds the same unchallenged dominance. Other economies are better positioned to adapt, realign, and reforge new trade relationships that sidestep the US if necessary. In this environment, Trump’s return to tariffs is unlikely to trigger a Great Depression—but it could very well ignite a Great Disruption.

This disruption may not tank the global economy, but it could seriously damage the US’s long-term position. Tariffs imposed under Trump’s trade agenda are not supported by much mainstream economic theory. Protectionist policies tend to raise prices, hurt consumers, and disrupt global supply chains without delivering long-term competitive advantage. More often than not, they provoke retaliation.

The danger is not only economic but geopolitical. As the US retreats from global trade leadership, other powers—particularly China and the EU—are stepping in to fill the void, reshaping the global order in ways that may not favor American interests. Allies may grow weary of an unpredictable US trade policy and seek greater self-reliance or deeper regional ties.

Trump's tariffs might not collapse the global economy, but they could mark the beginning of the US’s gradual marginalization in a multipolar world economy. That’s not a Depression—but it’s still a major disruption. And whether the US comes out stronger on the other side is far from certain.