The Best Possible Outcome for the US-China Trade War — And How to Get There
🌐 A Trade War with Global Consequences
The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China are no longer just a bilateral issue—they’ve become a threat to the global economy. With tariffs soaring, markets trembling, and supply chains rattled, the rest of the world watches nervously. But it doesn't have to end in economic wreckage. A better path is possible—one that benefits both Washington and Beijing, and stabilizes the broader international system.
So what would the best case scenario look like? And what steps must be taken—by both nations—to move from confrontation to cooperation?
✅ The Best-Case Scenario: Mutual Gain through Fair Trade and Strategic Cooperation
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Restoration of Predictable Trade Relations
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The U.S. and China agree to reduce tariffs to pre-2018 levels.
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Both commit to transparent trade practices monitored by neutral third parties like the WTO.
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The Phase One trade deal is either revised or replaced with a long-term trade agreement grounded in measurable, enforceable goals.
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Technological Competition Without Decoupling
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The two powers agree on frameworks for fair competition in technology sectors without forcing a global tech “cold war.”
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Joint forums are created to discuss ethical AI, data governance, and semiconductor supply chains.
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Global Supply Chain Stabilization
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The U.S. and China coordinate on diversifying but not severing supply chains.
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They build resilience against future disruptions without resorting to zero-sum policies.
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A New Economic Dialogue Framework
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A high-level, recurring U.S.-China Economic Cooperation Council is established with rotating working groups on trade, technology, and sustainability.
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Academic, business, and civil society leaders are included to depoliticize and broaden the conversation.
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Global Impact: Economic Recovery and Stability
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With the world's two largest economies cooperating, global markets stabilize.
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Developing countries no longer suffer collateral damage from trade volatility.
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Innovation and investment pick up as uncertainty fades.
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🤝 How the US and China Can Deescalate
What the United States Can Do:
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Tone Down the Rhetoric: Shift from nationalist framing to pragmatic problem-solving.
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Lift Excessive Tariffs: Targeted tariffs may be necessary, but broad-based ones hurt American consumers and businesses.
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Rebuild Multilateral Coalitions: Work with allies to ensure a united, rules-based global trading system.
What China Can Do:
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Open Up Its Markets: Reduce barriers for foreign firms and improve legal protections for intellectual property.
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Curb Industrial Subsidies: Gradually wind down support that creates global distortions in sectors like steel and solar panels.
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Enhance Transparency: Especially in data governance, cybersecurity rules, and business operations of state-owned enterprises.
🌏 A Call for Global Leadership
At a time when climate change, pandemics, and geopolitical risks demand unified responses, a prolonged U.S.-China economic war is a distraction the world cannot afford. Both nations must show the maturity to see beyond short-term political wins and recognize their shared responsibility as global stewards.
The best outcome isn't one in which one side "wins"—it's one where both sides rise. Economic peace between the U.S. and China would not only lift both economies, but also signal to the world that cooperation, even between rivals, is still possible.
Conclusion: The U.S.-China trade war has shown us what fracture looks like. It's time to show the world what repair looks like. The stakes couldn’t be higher—and the opportunity, no less profound.
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The Best Possible Outcome for the US-China Trade War — And How to Get There https://t.co/zUYlo3VOvW
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) April 11, 2025
People bring ideas with them.
— Paramendra Kumar Bhagat (@paramendra) April 11, 2025
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