Tuesday, April 22, 2025

22: JD Vance In India

"Maybe I Can Live In India": What JD Vance's Son Said After PM's Dinner Mr Vance, who arrived in India for a four-day visit with his wife Usha Vance and three children on Monday evening, said his affection for Mr Modi flowed from his kids' perception of the Indian Prime Minister........ Mr Vance also said Mr Modi is a "serious leader, who has thought deeply of India's prosperity and security not just the rest of his time in office but over the next century".

J.D. Vance flies into a giant trade storm in India It is being wooed and squeezed by America and China ......... China is turning up the heat. On the same day that Mr Vance arrived it warned the world against “appeasement”. “China firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of Chinese interests…and will resolutely take countermeasures”. ....... Mr Modi was looking forward to Mr Trump visiting India later this year. ......... With the prospect of a rupture between China and the United States, some American firms are looking to India as a production base, including Apple which already makes 20% of iPhones there. ........... American tariffs pose a “grave threat”, said Xu Feihong, the Chinese ambassador to India, in an interview published on April 19th. He added that India and China have “vast potential for co-operation” and should “oppose all forms of unilateralism and protectionism”. Before Mr Trump’s trade war the Asian giants had resolved a four-year standoff over a disputed border. They were talking about resuming direct flights. And India was starting to allow more Chinese investment in manufacturing to cut its reliance on imports from China. The border remains calm and the two sides have agreed to resume pilgrimages of Indian Buddhists and Hindus to Tibet. China is also pledging to buy more Indian goods. .......... India shares many of America’s fears about China. Indian military and intelligence officials worry about further border incursions in the Himalayas, China’s influence in South Asia, its military operations in the Indian Ocean, and Chinese technology in Indian infrastructure. Indian officials fret too about the trade deficit with China, which kept growing after the border clash, reaching $99bn in 2024-25. ........... Many Indian exports to America (and elsewhere) depend on Chinese components. The pharmaceutical sector, one of the biggest exporters to America, relies on China for 70% of precursor chemicals. The smartphone industry, a rare success story in Mr Modi’s scheme to attract foreign manufacturers with generous subsidies, needs China too. Phones are assembled largely from imported components, including many from China. ......... whatever the rules, India cannot quickly cut its dependence on China, which is prevalent even in low-tech industries such as textiles and leather goods. “I don’t see any alternative to China emerging in at least a decade” ............ India would not, for now, approve an application for BYD, a Chinese EV-maker, to invest $1bn in an Indian joint venture. ............ There could be fierce domestic resistance to a trade deal, especially if Mr Trump insists on opening India’s agricultural sector (a big employer) and its e-commerce market, which is dominated by some of its richest tycoons. Mr Trump may not allow more visas for Indian professionals, given his immigration policy. ........... Any agreement to further curtail Chinese involvement in India’s economy could make manufacturing harder and prompt Chinese retaliation. India has never had simple choices in dealing with its giant eastern neighbour. Mr Trump’s trade war isn’t making it any easier.

First stop Akshardham Temple for Vances, U.S. VP says his 'kids, in particular, loved it' “A carved wooden elephant, a model of the Delhi Akshardham Temple and children’s books were gifted to the family” ....... "The U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Second Lady Usha Vance and their children visited Swaminarayan Akshardham in Delhi 'their first stop in India' experiencing its majestic art, architecture and timeless values of faith, family and harmony." "The Vance family explored the mandir's majestic art and architecture, experiencing India's heritage and cultural depth and they appreciated the messages of harmony, family values, and timeless wisdom embodied in the Akshardham campus," it added. ......... Swaminarayan, believed to be an incarnation of Lord Vishnu, established the Swaminarayan faith and renewed the ideals of Hinduism in 18th century India. He established a spiritual way of life and code of conduct to be followed, according to the website of BAPS Swaminarayan.

American cities where house prices are crashing fastest... including four Texas hotspots House prices have soared almost 50 percent since the pandemic, but fears of a recession tied to Trump's aggressive tariffs have put homebuying on pause for many Americans. ........ 10 of the 50 biggest cities saw prices decrease year-on-year, mostly in Texas and Florida ....... Places like Dallas and Austin were once seen as affordable alternatives to high-cost cities like San Francisco and New York, but now the gap in housing costs between big-city job centers and Sun Belt metros has shrunk. ........ Moving to Texas is also less attractive than it used to be because of the increasing frequency and intensity of climate disasters such as hurricanes.

This Might Be the Dow's Worst April Since the Depression Investors rattled by threats to Fed's independence on top of tariffs .........

The Dow, which lost about 1,000 points on Monday, might chalk up its worst April since 1932. The index began April at about 42,000, and it's now just above 38,000......... The benchmark S&P 500's run since Inauguration Day is now the worst through this day for any president going back to 1928. It's down about 14% in that span......... The US dollar continued to weaken Tuesday against most foreign currencies as investors shed their exposure to it

It’s All Sunshine as the Vance Family Arrives in India Those tariff clouds? Indians wish them away as they welcome Vice President JD Vance for a four-day visit. ........ India is searching for any sign that it will be able to dodge the steep tariffs threatened by the Trump administration as it rushes to reorder global trade. ......... “This visit is very significant, coming at a time when there is unease internationally about what the Trump administration has been doing to friendly countries, including India,” said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor of diplomacy and disarmament at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “This is a visit to reassure India that the relationship is not going to completely go astray.” ............ Mr. Trump has called India an “abuser” of tariffs and a “tariff king.” Before he put a 90-day pause on his so-called reciprocal tariffs this month, Indian exports to the United States were facing levies of 27 percent — a number calculated on the basis of the size of America’s trade deficit with India............ As it has pursued negotiations with the United States, its largest trading partner and biggest export market, India has taken an accommodating stance, slashing duties on some imports of American goods. ........... In February, when Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump met in Washington, they sketched out a trade agreement that would aim for $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 — more than double the current amount. ........ The outline contained various give-and-takes. The United States would sell and co-produce more defense equipment that India needs to patrol its borders. India would buy more U.S. crude oil and liquefied natural gas and tackle illegal immigration more forcefully. And America would continue its support for maintaining security in the Indo-Pacific region. ........ Mr. Trump is expected to visit India in the fall to attend a Quad summit. ........... The American Immigration Lawyers Association said last week that Indian students in the United States, more than any other foreign student group, had been targeted for visa revocations by the Trump administration. The administration has voided hundreds of student visas across the United States as it restricts immigration and some speech on campuses.

With Only Bad Options, Businesses Scramble for a Tariff Chaos Playbook President Trump’s trade war is forcing companies to cut costs, raise prices, shrink profits, discontinue products and find other suppliers. .......... Businesses that rely on imported products expected duties, which President Trump had promised. Just not this high, this universal or this sudden, with almost no time to adjust. A 145 percent tariff on all Chinese products, after all, is more like a trade wall than a mere barrier. .......... dependence on a single market, however cheap and efficient, is unwise. ........ factories outside of China are getting flooded with orders. ......... the tariffs, if sustained, would reduce the share of U.S. imports that come from China to 5 percent from 13 percent. .......... bigger companies that built up inventory in advance of Mr. Trump’s inauguration, anticipating what was to come. Corporate profits are near record highs, so they might accept narrower margins, at least for a while. ..........

Republican Support Collapses Under Donald Trump if an election for Congress were held today, 48 percent would vote for the Democrat on their ballot, while 44 percent would vote for the Republican.......... Before Trump was inaugurated on January 20, Republicans had a seven-point lead of 51 percent to the Democrats' 44 percent. ...... for the first time since May 2021, the GOP was seen as less trustworthy than Democrats with the nation's finances. ......... the midterm elections will bring about a major shift in the makeup of the House of Representatives, with an overwhelming victory for Democratic House candidates. This view reflects the negative ratings held by a Republican led Administration, virtually in every significant category, related to political success, including the state of the economy, employment, inflation and especially lack of optimism being displayed by the vast number of Americans."

Supreme Court Just Signaled It May 'Go Toe to Toe' With Trump—Legal Analyst this represents a significant judicial challenge to presidential authority, characterizing it on social media platform Bluesky as "potentially a massive signal from the Supreme Court that it is finally prepared to go toe to toe with Trump to halt AEA deportations." ........ The president has said most detentions and deportations would target individuals with criminal records. However, in recent weeks, there have been multiple reports of people without criminal convictions, and some with valid documentation, being detained for deportation. .......... Saturday's ruling is particularly significant since it comes from a Court with a 6-3 conservative majority, including justices appointed during Trump's first term. ............ "It is SO unusual for the Supreme Court to issue an order this late at night and honestly incredible only Thomas and Alito noted their dissents. Also fascinating that SCOTUS rushed out the order before Alito could finish writing his dissent. That basically never happens! Again—majority seems pissed."

Liz Cheney Issues New Brutal Rebuke of Donald Trump "In a special mix of incompetence and evil, Trump has combined his disastrous implementation of 1930s tariff policies with Stalinesque targeting of political adversaries. The 2020 election wasn't stolen and speaking the truth is only a crime in countries ruled by tyrants," she wrote on X .......... Trump was impeached on January 13, 2021, by the House, with Cheney backing the effort. The Senate ultimately acquitted Trump, falling short of the two-thirds majority required for a conviction. However, a majority of senators, including five Republicans, voted to convict, with the final tally 57-43.

Republicans Have a Town Hall Problem Constituent anger has also risen in the past month, even in the deeply red districts, around hot topics such as proposed cuts to social security, Medicaid, and veterans' healthcare, as well as the White House's hard-line policies on migration and deportations. .......... During the March recess and the current April break, many Republicans, under guidance from the GOP, have chosen not to attend their own town halls, leading to some Democrats, including Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and California Representative Ro Khanna, going to the meetings instead, even out of their home states. .......... "These town halls tend to be dominated by committed partisans, exactly the kinds of individuals who will already show up and vote on Election Day." ......... "Democrats in 2009 and Republicans in 2017 both engaged in wishful thinking; that the pushback they were hearing at town halls were just a loud, unrepresentative minority. The midterm results each experienced speak for themselves." ........ One video from Republican Chuck Grassley's recent town hall in Iowa shows an older white male constituent in an American flag hat asking the 91-year-old senator: "Are you going to bring that guy back from El Salvador?" .......... "The voters we're hearing from don't want billionaires getting tax breaks funded by destroying healthcare, they don't want higher prices, and they don't want a recession." ........ DNC town halls have drawn large crowds in typically red states of Ohio and Tennessee, as well as in swing states Arizona and Pennsylvania, which both went for Trump in 2024. ......... Senator Elizabeth Warren received cheers from Tennessee voters when she spoke to 1,500 people at the DNC People's Town Hall in Nashville. ......... Town halls have gone from local events to national news due to videos of the meetings being shared across social media. .......... Republican Senator Jim Banks skipped a town hall organized by his constituents in Indiana in late March and sent doughnuts to the waiting crowd instead, whom he accused of being Democrats. ........ "Politicians who don't like hearing criticism from the people they work for—their constituents—should look for another line of work."

Some products simply can’t be made economically outside China right now, and they won’t be unless the current tariffs remain in place for many years. Globally integrated retailers may redirect some of their Chinese-made inventory to markets with lower tariffs, like Europe, while trying to find close substitutes produced in other countries to sell in the United States............ But consumers may notice fewer choices. ......... “supply chain engineering.” A product mostly made in China but finished in Thailand could result in a lower tax than one imported directly from China ........... Ultimately, few importers are going to be able to avoid charging more. ........ None of these strategies will solve importers’ problems entirely. They would much rather the tariffs just go away.

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