Monday, May 23, 2022

The Endgame In Ukraine Is Regime Change In Moscow

There is no need for the Ukrainian military to march to Moscow to liberate Russia. Stop watching old war movies. Be smart about how Putin's inner circles work. They are not a nuclear-protected fortress. They are brittle like China, as in clay, easily breakable if you know what the weak points are. 

To surrender Donbas to Putin would be to surrender the ethnic Russians living there to servitude. Putin is busy destroying Donbas. Can you not see? 

Ukraine has been an imperfect democracy where ethnic minorities like the ethnic Russians have not had their fair share of power in Kyiv. Fair enough. Think of the Indian Tamils in Sri Lanka, and the ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, feeling like second-class citizens. But also think Chechnya. If the ethnic minorities in Ukraine have faced discrimination the ethnic minorities in Russia are under Putin's dictatorial thumb. This guy is not trying to liberate anybody. This guy is up for a land grab. A dictatorship has to expand, or it will fall. The regime's very survival depends on this bad behavior. 

Kyiv has been a major setback for Putin. Donbas is not looking pretty either. And Ukraine is not all that small. You have to go by population. It is one-third the size of Russia. And it has a superior military force today. But contesting the territory is enough. If the Ukrainian military decides pushing Russia out completely is too much of a cost, it can legitimately just stay put, keep contesting the conquest and time is on their side. It can make slow gains, and still win. Because the war is happening in Moscow. Putin is getting weaker by the day. 

Zelensky need not talk until he wants to. But it is okay to keep the pressure cooker valves active. Anyone and everyone who might be able to communicate with Putin should, from the French president to the Indian prime minister, to the Turkish Putin, to the Chinese president. Putin is the one acting like Zelensky does not even exist. Putin is the one not negotiating. 

There is a political solution. There always is. And talks have to be unceasing. Numerous channels have to be constantly explored. Let the steam out from time to time. 

But there has to be a firm strategy in place: Looking at Tokyo, Going to London. You keep contesting the territory in Donbas to weaken Putin in Moscow. Putin falls and the war is over, even in Crimea. 

A dictator is not strong as he thinks. A dictator is never strong. A dictator lives in fear. It is the same fear that he spreads in the population. It comes back to him compounded. That is Putin's political karma. 

I want NATO irrelevant. And a democratic, federal, vibrant Russia will achieve that. Navalny for Interim President of Russia, Zelensky, and Kallas for the Nobel Peace Prize. 



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