Wednesday, April 01, 2020

Coronavirus News (23)

ER doctor on coronavirus: What needs to happen now — a 5 week national quarantine Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, expressed recently that 200,000 Americans could die even “if we do things perfectly." However, the Society of Critical Care Medicine has projected that more than 960,000 people in the United States may require ventilators during the course of this pandemic. ...... we may see

over 600,000 deaths in the United States

by the time this pandemic is over, and those numbers may increase if we are unable to produce enough ventilators for our response. .......... Federal officials have plucked the low-hanging fruit of mitigation — and now it’s time to reach deeper and enact a national quarantine. ...... This isn't my first time on the front lines of a war. This isn't my first time on the front lines of a war. I’ve also served on the front lines in Afghanistan. I have seen firsthand — and personally treated — hundreds of combat casualties. What we’re going to experience over the next few weeks will be much worse.. ........

unless this nation’s lawmakers can coordinate a national mass quarantine — for a minimum of five weeks — we will face an enemy that our system is unprepared to fight, and we will lose.

Five weeks is needed to overcome the long incubation period of this virus which can range anywhere from three to 12 days. ....... asymptomatic individuals may be contributing to this pandemic in a very significant way. Social distancing measures fail because we feel comfortable letting our guard down around asymptomatic individuals.



Bill Gates: Here’s how to make up for lost time on covid-19 There’s no question the United States missed the opportunity to get ahead of the novel coronavirus. ........ First, we need a consistent nationwide approach to shutting down. ..... Shutdown anywhere means shutdown everywhere. Until the case numbers start to go down across America — which could take 10 weeks or more — no one can continue business as usual or relax the shutdown. Any confusion about this point will only extend the economic pain, raise the odds that the virus will return, and cause more deaths. ....... Second, the federal government needs to step up on testing. Far more tests should be made available. ........... Finally, we need a data-based approach to developing treatments and a vaccine. Scientists are working full speed on both ....... To bring the disease to an end, we’ll need a safe and effective vaccine. If we do everything right, we could have one in less than 18 months — about the fastest a vaccine has ever been developed. But creating a vaccine is only half the battle. To protect Americans and people around the world, we’ll need to manufacture billions of doses. (Without a vaccine, developing countries are at even greater risk than wealthy ones, because it’s even harder for them to do physical distancing and shutdowns.)....... In 2015, I urged world leaders in a TED talk to prepare for a pandemic the same way they prepare for war — by running simulations to find the cracks in the system.



California County Health Officials Urge Widespread Use of Masks in Public
Trump’s Breakdown Old traits — bluster, defiance, implacable self-promotion — that once worked well now threaten to sink a presidency..........Before Herbert Hoover earned a reputation as a tragic failure, he had a reputation for heroic success—a can-do businessman who arrived in the presidency with no previous elective experience. He was one of the most celebrated men of his times. Then times changed. ...... Hoover floundered desperately during the early days of the Great Depression. “He has no resiliency. And if things continue to break badly for him, I think the chances are against his being able to avoid a breakdown. When men of his temperament get to his age without ever having had real opposition, and then meet it in its most dramatic form, it’s quite dangerous.” ....... Is there any equivalent example in American history of a president confronting a grave domestic or international crisis with a similar combination of impetuosity and self-reference? ...... He has questioned whether governors are exaggerating their need for medical equipment and then indignantly denied saying that the next day. He has boasted of the television ratings for his coronavirus briefings. ...... If there is any common trait of successful presidents, it is what Lippmann called “resiliency”—the capacity for personal growth, for recalibration, and for principled improvisation in the face of new circumstances...... If there is any common trait of failed presidents, it is incapacity for growth—a reliance on old habits and thinking even when events demand the opposite.........

The coronavirus drama, with 180,000 cases, rather than the 15 at the time Trump made his “close to zero” prediction, is still closer to the beginning than the end.

....... he could easily end up keeping company historically with Hoover (who promised that “prosperity is around the corner”) and Lyndon B. Johnson (whose Vietnam generals fantasized about “light at the end of the tunnel”) as presidents who arrived in office with outsized personalities that shriveled as they failed to meet the political, practical, ultimately psychic needs of a nation in crisis.



That viral story on FDA approving two-minute coronavirus test looks like a cruel April Fools' hoax
28 College Students Who Chartered A Spring Break Plane To Mexico Now Have Coronavirus
Coronavirus is now the third leading cause of death in the US, doctor says
How Donald Trump Plans on Spinning 200,000 Coronavirus Deaths as a Win
As Coronavirus Surges, ‘Medicare for All’ Support Hits 9-Month High Net support for single-payer health care rose 9 points between February and March

We’re Following A One-Size-Fits-All Coronavirus Strategy Right Into A Great Depression While this shutdown has already done enormous damage, it is the uncertainty about when and how it will reopen that could prove far more destructive in the long run. ...... Our leadership class responded to the outbreak of the coronavirus by shutting down the economy on a nationwide scale. While this will mitigate the loss of life the virus might otherwise have caused, it’s clear we’re also confronting a challenge no medical innovation can cure. We face an unprecedented situation — not a global pandemic, we’ve seen those before, but a modern capitalist economy that turned itself off for potentially more than 60 days, on purpose. ........ the knee-jerk reaction from a jittery Congress in the form of multi-trillion-dollar bailouts could create a number of disincentives for many people to go back to work. ......... At this pace, 2.2 million Americans are not going to die from this pandemic, the headline-grabbing figure advanced by the Imperial College UK, which assumed no changes in behavior or policy. ....... what we do know for a fact is that 3.3 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, the biggest jump in history (beating a jump of 695,000 in 1982), a number that is only going to continue to grow. ....... they’re uncertain about whether they’ll have a livelihood to go back to once the government lets them out of their homes, or whether their kids will ever go back to school. ....... On March 30, Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam illustrated the political dynamics of the moment in announcing, without warning, that no one should leave his house for any non-essential reason until June 10, beginning immediately. ....... Even a populous city like Los Angeles is far less hard hit than New York City and other more condensed cities, bulging at their ribs with people. In other communities, the worst outbreaks are often found in nursing homes and elder care facilities. ....... In suburbs and small towns across the country, they fear their Main Street will die because of trends and decisions far away. ...... America’s upper class will be fine. Their jobs can in large part be done remotely, and most will still be there in months. But for many in the middle and working classes across the country, there is no guarantee that their places of employment will be there. ...... When small businesses can’t plan, loans do them little good. ...... New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo last week sounded this note of optimism that younger people, those who’ve recovered, and those who aren’t high risk due to age or other health issues can get back to work soon ........ ‘What we did was we closed everything down … all business, all workers, old people, young people, tall people, short people,’ Cuomo said. ‘Young people then quarantined with older people, [which] was probably not the best public health strategy because the young people could’ve been exposing the older people to an infection.’ ........ Parents and students are in particular need of clarity as they plan for the fall, totally uncertain whether schools and universities will reopen — if ever. ...... This conversation is dominating discussions among parents across the country as they become aware of

expert predictions regarding a fall comeback for the virus.

......... a predicted larger peak epidemic later in the year: The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.” ...... The outcome of nationwide fall school shutdown would be disastrous: working parents will lose jobs to non-parents, and of those who do go to work, many will leave their younger children at home with older, more vulnerable adults — the exact opposite of a responsible aim at containing the virus. ........ What makes this such an unprecedented moment is that we are doing this to ourselves. The virus is not turning off the economy — we are turning it off to get ahead of the virus. But a modern capitalist economy cannot afford to turn itself off for 60 days or more at the whims of politicians more afraid of getting criticized by the national media than actually responding to the situation on the ground. ....... unless they are given a clear idea of a path forward by leaders in the public and private sector who chart our way back from potential economic ruin. ...... We must be able to care for the sick and protect the vulnerable without killing our economy. And we must give citizens confidence that as we get past the worst of this pandemic, the economy will reopen and rise toward a level that allows Americans to continue to work and thrive as a nation of free people.

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