Thursday, September 12, 2019

Hong Kong Should Take The Plunge

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What is the idea?

Is the idea to get people out into the streets? Well, you did. The streets are full. They have been full for months. Is the idea to shut the city down? The city looks shut. Although it can be more shut. It can be completely shut. If the idea is to shut the city, the only way it will work is if the city is completely shut. But the city is almost completely shut as it is.

What's the idea? Is the idea to shut the city down for so many weeks, so many months? Is it about how long? At what point does it work? If it did not work with three months, will it work with four months? Five months? How long is long enough?

This waiting game shows a lack of political sophistication. The people who are out in the streets need to get politically organized. Form political parties. Join political parties. Hold meetings.

That there are five specific demands shows some political maturity. But where is strategy talk? Where is talk of tactics? The super success of the street protests could not have happened without sound tactics. They are there. But they have to be taken to another level.

There is need for organized, sustained political conversation. There is need for political structure. There is need for political leadership.

The only way this thing is going to work is if Hong Kong threatens to break away, declare independence. Singapore is a country. Maybe Hong Kong can be one too. But that thought of threatening independence can not enter the political stage unless the millions of people out in the streets become politically organized.

It can't be about imitating America. America does not have all the answers. In fact, China does have some of the answers.

I was just reading about Xinjiang, and I am thinking, looks like Xi is breaking up families there just like Donald Deng Trump is breaking up families on the Mexican border. China has a surveillance problem. America does too. Although, to be fair, in China it is much more sinister.

The goals have to be clear. And they are. The five demands are pretty clear. But they can not be set in stone. Sticking to one country, two systems is a sound idea, I think. But if you stick to it unthinkingly, then there lies defeat. The Hong Kong protest movement has to be open to the idea of declaring independence. That is the only way Beijing might listen. Even if the idea is to preserve one country, two systems, the only way to get the five demands met while still preserving one country, two systems is by being ready to threaten independence. But you can not threaten independence unless you are politically organized. I don't see that political structure.

Saying by action that this will work if only you do it for long enough is not a sound strategy. Facing the fact that that is what you are saying and subjecting that to relentless internal political dialogue is political maturity.

Beijing has already made its move. If you declare independence, we will invade you. That seems to be the message. If the protest movement were to similarly say, if you don't meet our five demands, we will declare independence will force Beijing's hand. I don't think they can invade without risking a total collapse of the communist party inside China.

One move would be tactical. Make a credible threat for independence such that Beijing is forced to accept the five demands. Another is independence as a political goal. For that you would need to organize globally. Make secret pleas to governments around the world. Ask for support. This is our government is waiting. After we declare, will you duly recognize us, please?

Personally I am perfectly okay with one country two systems. But I do think all members of the Hong Kong legislature as well as the Chief Executive need to be directly elected by the people.

Another option is to stay put. Keep doing what you are doing. Be prepared to do it all the way to the new year. That action on its own will lead to a collapse of the communist party inside China. East Europe saw 1989. East Asia will see 2019. Better late than never.

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