Thursday, September 12, 2019

Hong Kong 2019: This Is 1989 For Asia

And the best route is not the route that was taken in Russia in 1989. The collapse was spectacular, true. That was good news for the victor. But that saw a decade of economic contraction for Russia, and falling living standards. There was half baked democracy. The mafia swooped in. There are people who argue Russia is not even a democracy.

That is why my first choice is one country, two systems. But it does require that Beijing makes peace with full-fledged democracy in Hong Kong. If not, two countries, one system, democracy, might become the new slogan.

The US political system is bubbling with complaints about how things are. Money is too influential in American politics. Maybe Hong Kong does not want a copycat system. In fact, Hong Kong seems to have a bigger money in politics problem. The Hong Kong billionaires put the Koch brothers to shame.

And that is why I think the Hong Kong protestors need to become politically organized and engage in intelligent debates and discussions on the kind of political system they might want. Maybe they can build something new. Maybe they can build something that progressives in America dream about.

Freedom has to ring. But the call for freedom can not be naive. This ongoing protest movement in Hong Kong should seek inspiration from Eastern Europe in 1989, true. But it also should learn. The post-1989 transition in Russia could have been handled much, much better.

Voices inside the Chinese Communist Party that might have democratic aspirations need to rise. They need to make a case that the one country, two systems that was promised to Hong Kong must be delivered. That 2047 is not when Hong Kong becomes like China, but that is when China becomes like Hong Kong, if not earlier.

Boris Yeltsin was a member of the communist party in Russia. Who are the Boris Yeltsins of China?

Let Boris be an inspiration. But let him also be a warning. He messed up the transition big time.

Xi Jinping having declared himself president for life might have been the moment when the Chinese Communist Party signed its death warrant. The 10-year term that was in place was perhaps a better arrangement. Now the Chinese have a system where you can not challenge that one guy. This system will break, but it will not bend. Looks like it will break.

I know so little about internal Chinese politics, I don't seem to know the name of any other politician besides Xi. Okay, there is that Vice President guy who leads the trade talks. And the Foreign Minister. But other than that, I don't seem to have names and faces. Who are these people?










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