Monday, January 07, 2019

The Geometry Of The Green Deal




The term Green New Deal might have a long tail, but the credit of finally putting it on the political map goes to AOC. She is politically gifted. No doubt this honeymoon period will come to an end, and she will face her eventual backlash. But she is no flash in the pan. She is potential presidential material.

It is Green Deal or bust. Climate change is for real. The consequences of not doing anything are dire. There is a cliff ahead. There is a point of no return. Global warming is not just all is same, it is just a little bit warmer. Wouldn't that be nice? Global warming is meteorological chaos. It is the monsoon deciding to leave the Indian subcontinent and popping up at some random landmass every year. Agriculture as we know it requires predictable weather. Global warming in its extreme messes up the predictability.

It's not AOC. It's the planet. The planet needs it. Bad.

The Civil War made Lincoln. The Great Depression and World War II made FDR. Global Warming will make AOC.

The 13 figures that get thrown into any talk of a Green Deal are surprisingly good economics. Post Green Deal America will see prosperity that will make the 2018 prosperity feel like America had been Haiti.

And it will be just prosperity. If you think about it, Social Security was outlandish considering it was preceded by, well, nothing like it. The post-Green Deal similarly will have a floor for all called the Universal Basic Income.

People go wow about the Internet. There are 10 Internet size technologies right around the corner. If you do the Green Deal right, you take the world into an Age Of Abundance. The productivity gains projected by the technologies right round the corner will make the idea of a Universal Basic Income as a matter of fact as minimum wage is today. Can't do without it. The wheels of the economy will not budge without it.

The projected gains in clean energy efficiencies over the coming decade are such that dirty energy sources stand no chance. But the political arm has to do its part. That's where the Green Deal comes in.

The America of tomorrow is young and browning. AOC represents that America.

The worst possible thing AOC could do politically is to try to climb the ladders of the US House. She needs to go national, and possibly global, digitally. And this is not just about having more Twitter and Instagram followers, impressive as her numbers are. This is about an actual organization, only it is primarily digital. It will have donors, it will have local chapters, it will self-elect its local leaders, it will host house parties. It will crowdcraft the writing of the actual legislation. And, no, it's not mobocracy. The academics who have done their work will get their say.

That way even if it is a Warren-Harris White House in 2020, the Green Deal still goes through, and AOC still plays the decisive role, and perhaps she gets to do Green Deal 2.0 when she gets into the White House in 2028. Just like Obamacare is in dire need of a 2.0 because 1.0 still left too many uninsured.










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